To address the logistical challenge of transporting 100 million metric tons of material to establish a 100,000-person Moon colony by 2050, we develop a Universal Energy-Equivalent and Temporal Co-
ordination Model and a ife-Support Logistics and Stochastic Water Bal-
ance Model. These models evaluate the trade-offs between the Space Elevator System and traditional rocket launches across energy, time, and environmental dimensions.
Firstly, we establish a **Universal Energy-Equivalent (UEE)** metric to facilitate a thermodynamically consistent comparison between chemical rockets and electric space elevators. We introduce a **Time-Opportunity Parameter ($\lambda$)** to transform the energy-time trade-off into a single optimization objective. To ensure robustness, we incorporate **CVaR-style risk adjustments** and **Monte Carlo simulations** to account for system failures, tether swaying, and operational downtime.
For **task 1**, we compare three delivery scenarios. We find that while a **Rocket-Only** approach offers the shortest initial timeline, it is energetically prohibitive. The **Elevator-Only** scenario requires 186 years but consumes the least energy. The **Balanced Hybrid** scenario (139 years) emerges as a strategic compromise, balancing construction velocity with resource efficiency.
For **task 2**, we evaluate system reliability under non-ideal conditions. Our results indicate that the space elevator’s throughput is highly sensitive to tether stability. However, even with a **15% downtime margin**, the elevator remains the superior long-term infrastructure compared to the high failure-cost risks of mass rocket launches.
For **task 3**, we develop a **Tiered Water Logistics Model** based on three comfort levels. Using sensitivity analysis ,we identify **recycling efficiency ($\eta$)** as the dominant lever; a 1% drop in $\eta$ increases annual supply needs by 9.6%. We conclude that the space elevator can comfortably support a Luxury tier, occupying 69.68% of its annual capacity.
For **task 4**, we extend the model into an **Environmental Single-Objective Framework**. By quantifying CO2 emissions and stratospheric H2O injection, we find the **Elevator-Only** plan reduces carbon footprints by 93.5% compared to rockets. We propose the **186-year standalone elevator** as the optimal strategy to ensure lunar colonization does not compromise Earth's ecological integrity.
Finally, we recommend a **Tiered Strategy**: beginning with Survival-tier logistics to secure the colony, then transitioning to a Comfort-tier elevator-based operation to achieve long-term sustainability.
