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2026_mcm_b/p4/__pycache__/environmental_impact.cpython-313.pyc

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p4
2026-02-01 14:47:38 +08:00
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p4: fig_fix
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p4
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p4: fig
2026-02-03 02:58:51 +08:00
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p4
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Task 4: Environmental Impact Analysis for Moon Colony Construction
使用液氧甲烷(LOX/CH4)燃料的环境影响评估
分析不同建设方案对地球环境的影响，并给出最小化环境影响的模型调整策略。
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p4: fig
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\S'Srg)<16>EmissionFactors<72>Au#排放因子 (kg排放物/kg燃料)N<> fuel_paramsc<00>><00>URc[5Ulgg<00>N)r1r rs r<00> __post_init__<5F>EmissionFactors.__post_init__Is<00><00> <0F> <1B> <1B> #<23>0<>2<>D<EFBFBD> <1C> $rrc<00>4<00>URRS-$)u每kg燃料的CO2排放 (kg)g@<40>r1rrs r<00>co2_per_kg_fuel<65>EmissionFactors.co2_per_kg_fuelM<00><00><00><14><1F><1F>1<>1<>D<EFBFBD>8<>8rc<00>4<00>URRS-$)u每kg燃料的H2O排放 (kg)g@r7rs r<00>h2o_per_kg_fuel<65>EmissionFactors.h2o_per_kg_fuelRr:rg@<40>ch4_production_co2<6F><00>?<3F>lox_production_kwhgffffff<66>?<3F>grid_carbon_intensityg<79><67><EFBFBD><EFBFBD><EFBFBD><EFBFBD><EFBFBD>?<3F>grid_carbon_intensity_renewable皙<65><E79A99><EFBFBD><EFBFBD><EFBFBD>?<3F>stratosphere_emission_fractiong@<40>stratosphere_h2o_residence_time<6D>r1)r$r%r&r'r(r1r r*r4r,r+r8r<r>r@rArBrDrEr-r#rrr/r/As<><00><00>-<2D>&*<2A>K<EFBFBD>"<22>)<29>3<><0E>9<><15>9<><0E>9<><0E>9<><15>9<><0E>9<>
p4
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!$<24><16><05>#<23> #<23><16><05>#<23>$)<29><19>5<EFBFBD>(<28>-1<>#<23>U<EFBFBD>1<>-1<>"<22>E<EFBFBD>0<>-0<>#<23>U<EFBFBD>0rr/c<00><><00>\rSrSr%\\S'\\S'\\S'Sr\\S'\ S\4Sj5r
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p4: fig
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short_name<EFBFBD>latituder<00>max_launches_per_dayrc<00>,<00>[UR5$r3)<02>absrKrs r<00> abs_latitude<64>LaunchSite.abs_latitudels<00><00><12>4<EFBFBD>=<3D>=<3D>!<21>!rc<00><><00>[[-[R"[R"UR
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$r3)rRrSrW)r<00> v_equators r<00> delta_v_loss<73>LaunchSite.delta_v_lossts<00><00><1F>'<27>)<29> <09><18>1<>1<>1<>1rr#N)r$r%r&r'r)r*r+rL<00>intr,rOrWr[r-r#rrrHrHesn<00><00>
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p4
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--
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p4: fig
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NUM_STAGESrT<00>exp<78>ALPHA<48>inf<6E>range) rmr1<00>ve<76>delta_v_per_stage<67>R_stage<67> denominator<6F>k_stage<67>total_fuel_ratio<69>remaining_ratio<69>_<>fuel_this_stages r<00>fuel_ratio_multistager~<00>s<><00><00> <14> %<25> %<25>B<EFBFBD><1F>*<2A>,<2C><15><10>f<EFBFBD>f<EFBFBD>&<26>+<2B>,<2C>G<EFBFBD><13>e<EFBFBD>w<EFBFBD><11>{<7B>+<2B>+<2B>K<EFBFBD><12>a<EFBFBD><17><11>v<EFBFBD>v<EFBFBD> <0A><16><11>{<7B>k<EFBFBD>)<29>G<EFBFBD><18><14><19>O<EFBFBD> <12>:<3A> <1E><01>)<29>3<><0F><18>+<2B><18><17>A<EFBFBD><07>1<EFBFBD>u<EFBFBD>9<EFBFBD> 5<>5<>6<><0F><1F>
<1C>r<00>sitec<00>H<00>[UR-n[U5nUS-$)u0每吨载荷的燃料消耗 (kg燃料/ton载荷)<29><>)<03> DELTA_V_BASEr[r~)rrm<00>ks r<00>rocket_fuel_per_tonr<6E><00>s%<00><00><1A>T<EFBFBD>.<2E>.<2E>.<2E>G<EFBFBD><1D>g<EFBFBD>&<26>A<EFBFBD> <0C>t<EFBFBD>8<EFBFBD>Orc<00>:<00>[U5[R-$)u/火箭发射每吨载荷的能量消耗 (J/ton))r<><00> FUEL_PARAMSr)rs r<00>rocket_energy_per_tonr<6E><00>s<00><00> <1E>t<EFBFBD> $<24>{<7B>'B<>'B<> B<>Brc<00><><00>\rSrSr%Sr\\S'\\S'\\S'\\S'\\S'\\S'\\S '\\S
p4
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'\\S '\\S '\\S '\\S'\\S'\\S'\\S'\ S\4Sj5r
p4: fig
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\ S\4Sj5r \ S\4Sj5r Sr g)<18>EnvironmentalImpact<63><74>u环境影响结果<E7BB93> scenario_name<6D>completion_years<72>total_payload_tons<6E>total_energy_PJ<50>rocket_energy_PJ<50>elevator_energy_PJ<50> total_fuel_Mt<4D>rocket_fuel_Mt<4D>elevator_top_rocket_fuel_Mt<4D>co2_combustion_Mt<4D>co2_fuel_production_Mt<4D>co2_electricity_Mt<4D> h2o_total_Mt<4D>h2o_stratosphere_Mt<4D>rocket_launchesrc<00>N<00>URUR-UR-$)u总CO2排放 (百万吨))r<>r<>r<>rs r<00> co2_total_Mt<4D> EnvironmentalImpact.co2_total_Mt<4D>s&<00><00><14>%<25>%<25><04>(C<>(C<>C<>d<EFBFBD>F]<5D>F]<5D>]<5D>]rc<00>:<00>URS-UR- $)u每吨载荷的CO2排放 (kg)<29>e<><65>A)r<>r<>rs r<00>co2_per_ton_payload<61>'EnvironmentalImpact.co2_per_ton_payload<61>s <00><00><14> <20> <20>3<EFBFBD>&<26><14>)@<40>)@<40>@<40>@rc<00>X<00>URS:<3A>aURUR- $S$)u年均CO2排放 (百万吨/年)r)r<>r<>rs r<00> annual_co2_Mt<4D>!EnvironmentalImpact.annual_co2_Mt<4D>s0<00><00>=A<01><Q<><Q<>TU<54><U<>t<EFBFBD> <20> <20>4<EFBFBD>#8<>#8<>8<>\<5C>[\<5C>\rr#N)r$r%r&r'r(r)r*r+r]r,r<>r<>r<>r-r#rrr<>r<><00>s<><00><00><1C><16><16><1B><1B><1D><1D><1B><1A><1B><1B><1D><1D><19><18><19><19>!&<26>&<26><1D><1C>!<21>!<21><1D><1D><17><17><1E><1E><19><18> <0A>^<01>e<EFBFBD>^<01><0E>^<01><0E>A<01>U<EFBFBD>A<01><0E>A<01><0E>]<01>u<EFBFBD>]<01><0E>]rr<><00>r<>r<><00>elevator_fraction<6F>rocket_sites_used<65>emission_factors<72>renewable_energy_fractionc<00><><00>[U-n[SU-
p4
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-nU[-nU[-n U[-n
Sn [ U 5n US-U -n US:<3A>a<>[ U5S:<3A>a<>[ [R"U[- [ U5- 55nU[ U5-nSnSnUHNnU[ U5- nUS-[ [UR-5-nUU- nUU[R-- nMP OSnSnSnUU -nUUR-nUUR-nU[R -nU[R"-nUUR$-nUUR&-UR(-nUU-nU S- nUR(SU-
-UR*U--nUU-nUUR-n U UR,-n![/UU[UU-S- US- US- US- US- U S- US- US- US- US- U!S- US9$) u3
计算单个情景的环境影响
参数:
scenario_name: 情景名称
completion_years: 完成年限
elevator_fraction: 电梯运输比例 (0-1)
rocket_sites_used: 使用的火箭发射场列表
emission_factors: 排放因子
renewable_energy_fraction: 可再生能源占比 (0-1)
p4: fig
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rir<>rg@wKAg4&<26>k Cr<43>)r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>)<18> TOTAL_PAYLOAD<41>ELEVATOR_SPECIFIC_ENERGY<47>ELEVATOR_LIFT_ENERGY<47>ELEVATOR_TOP_ROCKET_ENERGYr~<00>lenr]rT<00>ceil<69>PAYLOAD_PER_LAUNCHr<48>r[r<>rr8r<rr!r>r@rArBrDr<>)"r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<><00>elevator_payload<61>rocket_payload<61>elevator_energy<67>elevator_lift_energy<67>elevator_top_rocket_energy<67>elevator_top_delta_v<5F>elevator_top_fuel_ratio<69>elevator_top_rocket_fuel<65>launches_per_site<74>total_launches<65>rocket_fuel_total<61>rocket_energy_totalr<00> site_payload<61> site_fuel<65>
p4
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total_fuel<EFBFBD>co2_combustion<6F>h2o_combustion<6F>ch4_mass<73>lox_mass<73>co2_ch4_production<6F>co2_lox_production<6F>co2_fuel_production<6F>elevator_electricity_kwh<77>grid_intensity<74>co2_electricity<74>
p4: fig
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h2o_rocket<EFBFBD>h2o_stratospheres" r<00>calculate_scenario_impactr<74><00>s<><00><00>(%<25>'8<>8<><14>"<22>a<EFBFBD>*;<3B>&;<3B><<3C>N<EFBFBD>'<27>)A<>A<>O<EFBFBD>+<2B>.B<>B<><18>!1<>4N<34>!N<><1E> <20><18>3<>4H<34>I<><1B>/<2F>$<24>6<>9P<39>P<><1C><16><01><19>c<EFBFBD>"3<>4<>q<EFBFBD>8<><1F><02><07><07><0E>9K<39>(K<>c<EFBFBD>Rc<52>Nd<4E>(d<> e<>f<><19>*<2A>S<EFBFBD>1B<31>-C<>C<><0E><1E><19><1F><1B>%<25>D<EFBFBD>)<29>C<EFBFBD>0A<30>,B<>B<>L<EFBFBD>$<24>t<EFBFBD>+<2B>.C<>L<EFBFBD>SW<53>Sd<53>Sd<53>Dd<44>.e<>e<>I<EFBFBD> <1D><19> *<2A> <1D> <1F>9<EFBFBD>{<7B>/J<>/J<>#J<> J<> <1F> &<26> <1B><0E><1D><19><1F><1B>#<23>%=<3D>=<3D>J<EFBFBD> <20>"2<>"B<>"B<>B<>N<EFBFBD><1F>"2<>"B<>"B<>B<>N<EFBFBD><1A>K<EFBFBD>9<>9<>9<>H<EFBFBD><19>K<EFBFBD>9<>9<>9<>H<EFBFBD>!<21>$4<>$G<>$G<>G<><16>!<21>$4<>$G<>$G<>G<>JZ<4A>Jp<4A>Jp<4A>p<><16>,<2C>/A<>A<><17> 4<>e<EFBFBD>;<3B><1C>&<26><<3C><<3C><01>D]<5D>@]<5D>^<5E>%<25>E<>E<>Ha<48>a<>b<01>N<EFBFBD>.<2E><1E>?<3F>O<EFBFBD>#<23>%5<>%E<>%E<>E<>J<EFBFBD>!<21>$4<>$S<>$S<>S<><14> <1E>#<23>)<29>(<28>,<2C><EFBFBD>><3E>$<24>F<>,<2C>t<EFBFBD>3<>*<2A>T<EFBFBD>1<> <20>3<EFBFBD>&<26>(<28>3<EFBFBD>.<2E>$<<3C>s<EFBFBD>$B<>(<28>3<EFBFBD>.<2E>2<>S<EFBFBD>8<>*<2A>S<EFBFBD>0<>#<23>c<EFBFBD>)<29>,<2C>s<EFBFBD>2<>&<26> <06>rc<00>,<00>/n[[[5S-[-- nUR SUS[R 5SS.5 [[ - nUR SUS/SS.5 [ [[5S-[--n[U- n[ U-nU[- nUR S UU[R 5S
p4
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S.5 S n[[ U-[5nU[- n UR S UU [S SSS.5 U$)u2
定义四个基准情景 (基于任务一结果)
p4: fig_fix
2026-02-03 05:07:32 +08:00
<EFBFBD>m<00> Rocket Onlyr<79>u)纯火箭方案：10个发射场满负荷)rr<>r<><00> rocket_sites<65> description<6F> Elevator Onlyrou%纯电梯方案：3个电梯满负荷zCombined (Min Time)u6混合方案(最短时间)：电梯+全部火箭站点<E7AB99><E782B9><00>Combined (Balanced)N<>u3混合方案(膝点)：电梯优先+低纬度火箭)r<>r<><00> LAUNCH_SITESr<53><00>append<6E>copy<70>TOTAL_ELEVATOR_CAPACITY<54>min)
p4
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<EFBFBD> scenarios<6F>rocket_only_years<72>elevator_only_years<72>combined_capacity<74>combined_min_years<72>elevator_payload_min<69>elevator_fraction_min<69>
knee_years<EFBFBD>elevator_payload_knee<65>elevator_fraction_knees
p4: fig_fix
2026-02-03 05:07:32 +08:00
r<00>define_scenariosr<73>IsB<00><00><13>I<EFBFBD>&<26><13>\<5C>):<3A>S<EFBFBD>)@<40>CU<43>)U<>V<><15> <0A><14><14><1D>-<2D> <20>$<24>)<29>)<29>+<2B>B<> <06><07>(<28>*A<>A<><17> <0A><14><14><1F>/<2F> <20><1A>><3E> <06><07>0<>#<23>l<EFBFBD>2C<32>c<EFBFBD>2I<32>L^<5E>2^<5E>^<5E><15>&<26>):<3A>:<3A><16>2<>5G<35>G<><18>0<>=<3D>@<40><19> <0A><14><14>%<25>.<2E>2<>$<24>)<29>)<29>+<2B>O<> <06><07><15>J<EFBFBD><1F> 7<>*<2A> D<>m<EFBFBD>T<><19>2<>]<5D>B<><1A> <0A><14><14>%<25>&<26>3<>$<24>R<EFBFBD>a<EFBFBD>(<28>L<> <06><07> <15>r<00>renewable_fractionc<00>&<00>[5n/nUH<>n[USUSUSUSUS9nURURURUR
p4
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S:<3A>aUR UR
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p4: fig
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URURURURURURURURURUR S.5 M<> ["R$"U5$) u分析所有情景rr<>r<>r<><00>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<00>d)<0E>Scenario<69>Years<72>
Elevator %<25> Energy (PJ)<29> Fuel (Mt)<29>CO2 Total (Mt)<29>CO2 Combustion (Mt)<29>CO2 Production (Mt)<29>CO2 Electricity (Mt)<29>H2O Total (Mt)<29>H2O Stratosphere (Mt)<29>Annual CO2 (Mt/yr)<29> CO2/ton (kg)<29>Launches)r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<>r<><00>pd<70> DataFrame)r<>r<><00>results<74>scenario<69>impacts r<00>analyze_all_scenariosr<73><00>s <00><00> <20>"<22>I<EFBFBD><10>G<EFBFBD><1D><08>*<2A>"<22>6<EFBFBD>*<2A>%<25>&8<>9<>&<26>':<3A>;<3B>&<26>~<7E>6<>&8<> 
p4
2026-02-01 14:47:38 +08:00
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带环境约束的优化模型
目标: 最小化 总CO2排放
约束:
- 完成时间 >= min_completion_years
- 年均CO2 <= max_annual_co2_Mt
决策变量:
- 电梯运输比例 (0-1)
- 使用的火箭站点数量 (0-10)
p4: fig
2026-02-03 02:58:51 +08:00
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Annual CO2r>)<04>cellText<78> colLabelsrQ<00>cellLocr"g333333<33>?g<><67><EFBFBD><EFBFBD><EFBFBD><EFBFBD><EFBFBD>?r<>z#90EE90z1Scenario Summary Table
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textcoords<EFBFBD>xytextr@rAr<>uTotal CO₂ (Mt)uTime-CO₂ Trade-offr<66>u<>
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KEY FINDINGS (LOX/CH4 Fuel):
1. Rocket Only: Highest CO₂ emissions ({:.0f} Mt) due to large fuel consumption ({:.1f} Mt fuel).
- Annual emissions: {:.1f} Mt/yr (≈{:.3f}% of global annual emissions)
- Stratospheric H₂O injection: {:.1f} Mt (potential climate impact)
2. Elevator Only: Lowest CO₂ emissions ({:.0f} Mt), but longest timeline ({:.0f} years).
- CO₂ reduction vs Rocket: {:.0f}% (primary savings from avoiding rocket fuel production)
- No stratospheric H₂O injection from main transport
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3. Combined (Balanced): Best trade-off at 139 years with {:.0f} Mt CO₂.
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- 74.6% payload via elevator, 25.4% via low-latitude rockets
- Reasonable timeline with significant environmental benefit
4. RECOMMENDATIONS for Minimizing Environmental Impact:
a) Prioritize space elevator transport (saves ~{:.0f}% CO₂ vs pure rocket)
b) Use renewable energy for elevator operation (reduces electricity emissions)
c) If rockets needed, prefer low-latitude sites (lower fuel per kg)
d) Consider carbon capture for CH4 production phase
p4: fig
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p4: fig
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$!,(df  NA=f)qu生成分析报告<E68AA5>I@g^@r?)r<>r<>r<><00>P================================================================================<3D>%TASK 4: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSISz2Moon Colony Construction - 100 Million Metric Tonsz'Fuel: LOX/CH4 (Liquid Oxygen / Methane)<29>Q
================================================================================z1. FUEL PARAMETERS (LOX/CH4)z Specific Impulse (Isp): z sz Exhaust Velocity: r=z m/sz Specific Energy: g<00><>.ArUz MJ/kgz O2/CH4 Mass Ratio: z:1z CH4 Mass Fraction: r<><00>%u0
p4
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Combustion Reaction: CH4 + 2O2 → CO2 + 2H2Oz CO2 per kg fuel: z.3fz kgz H2O per kg fuel: z2. SCENARIO COMPARISONz
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r<><00>:z Completion Time: r<>z yearsz Total Energy: r<>z PJz Total Fuel: r<>rVr<>z CO2 Emissions: r<>z - Combustion: r<>z - Fuel Production: r<>z - Electricity: r<>z H2O Emissions: r<>z - Stratospheric: r<>z Annual CO2: r<>z Mt/yr (irz % of global)z CO2 per ton payload: r<>z kg/tonz3. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT RANKINGz
By Total CO2 (lowest first):rz z. z: r<>rz
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CO2 Reduction vs Rocket Only:z: -z04. OPTIMIZATION FOR MINIMUM ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTz
Optimization Constraints:z( - Minimum completion time: 120 yearsz" - Maximum annual CO2: 50 Mt/yrz$ - Renewable energy fraction: 50%z
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Optimal Solution:z - Elevator fraction: r<>z - Rocket sites used: rz - Completion time: rz - Total CO2: r<>z - Annual CO2: z Mt/yrz#5. MODEL ADJUSTMENT RECOMMENDATIONSu|
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To minimize environmental impact, adjust the model as follows:
A. OBJECTIVE FUNCTION MODIFICATION:
Original: min(α×Time + β×Energy)
Modified: min(α×Time + β×Energy + γ×CO2_total + δ×H2O_stratosphere)
Where γ and δ are weights for environmental costs.
B. RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES (by effectiveness):
1. Prioritize Elevator Transport (CO2 reduction: ~70-80%)
- Elevator has no direct combustion emissions
- Top rocket stage emissions much smaller than full rocket launch
2. Use Renewable Energy for Elevator (CO2 reduction: 5-10%)
- Replace grid electricity with solar/wind
- Reduces electricity-related emissions
3. Low-Latitude Launch Sites Only (CO2 reduction: 3-5%)
- Lower ΔV requirements = less fuel
- Kourou (5.2°) vs Alaska (57.4°): ~10% fuel difference
4. Green Methane Production (CO2 reduction: 15-20%)
- Use bio-methane or synthetic methane from CO2 capture
- Reduces fuel production emissions
5. Extend Timeline (CO2 reduction: proportional)
- More time → more elevator use → less rocket use
- Trade-off: slower colony establishment
C. QUANTIFIED IMPACT:
- Baseline (Rocket Only): {:.0f} Mt CO2
- Best Case (Elevator + 100% Renewable): {:.0f} Mt CO2
- Maximum Reduction: {:.1f}%
p4: fig
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<EFBFBD>Bestr<74>ro)r<>z 6. STRATOSPHERIC IMPACT ANALYSISzY
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Stratospheric Water Vapor Injection (Rocket Only scenario):
- Total H2O emitted: z Mt
- Stratospheric fraction: z%
- Stratospheric H2O: z Mt
- Residence time: z<> years
Potential Climate Effects:
- Stratospheric H2O has greenhouse effect (radiative forcing)
- May affect ozone chemistry
- Elevator-only scenario eliminates this impact entirely
p4: fig
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p4
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^<07>__main__r7r8z*Moon Colony Construction with LOX/CH4 Fuelz#
p4
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1. Analyzing baseline scenarios...z
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Scenario Comparison:r?z!
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2. Generating Pareto analysis...z&
3. Analyzing mitigation strategies...z'
4. Generating comprehensive summary...z
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5. Generating report...r9z(Analysis complete! All outputs saved to:)r<>)r6gY@r?)r)=r(<00>numpyrT<00>
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2026-02-03 02:58:51 +08:00
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2026-02-01 14:47:38 +08:00
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