p3: ana

2026-02-02 20:35:10 +08:00
parent a3c5e2987c
commit 8192fcc354
15 changed files with 1576 additions and 0 deletions
--- a/p3/interaction_heatmap.png
+++ b/p3/interaction_heatmap.png
--- a/p3/sensitivity_buffer_days.png
+++ b/p3/sensitivity_buffer_days.png
--- a/p3/sensitivity_comfort_factor.png
+++ b/p3/sensitivity_comfort_factor.png
--- a/p3/sensitivity_medical_params.png
+++ b/p3/sensitivity_medical_params.png
--- a/p3/sensitivity_population.png
+++ b/p3/sensitivity_population.png
--- a/p3/sensitivity_recycle_rate.png
+++ b/p3/sensitivity_recycle_rate.png
--- a/p3/sensitivity_summary_report.txt
+++ b/p3/sensitivity_summary_report.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+====================================================================================================
+TASK 3: WATER SUPPLY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SUMMARY
+====================================================================================================
+
+## 基准参数
+- 人口: 100,000
+- 舒适度因子 (α): 50.0
+- 水回收效率 (η): 90%
+- 患病率: 2.0%
+- 医疗用水: 5.0 L/次
+- 置信水平: 99.0%
+- 安全缓冲: 30 天
+
+## 基准水需求
+- 每日补充量: 235.0 吨
+- 年补充量: 85775.0 吨
+- 首批运输量: 9315.4 吨
+- 年能耗: 13.4838 PJ
+- 运力占比: 15.97%
+
+====================================================================================================
+## 关键灵敏度发现
+====================================================================================================
+
+### 1. 水回收效率 (η) - 影响程度: ★★★★★
+- 范围: 70% - 95%
+- η从90%降至80%时，日补充量翻倍
+- 这是对年运输需求影响最大的参数
+- 建议: 优先投资水回收系统维护和升级
+
+### 2. 舒适度因子 (α) - 影响程度: ★★★★★  
+- 范围: 1 - 300
+- α=250时年补充量是α=1时的35倍
+- 在高舒适度下可能超出电梯运力
+- 建议: 初期采用生存标准，逐步提升舒适度
+
+### 3. 人口规模 (N) - 影响程度: ★★★★☆
+- 范围: ±20% (80k - 120k)
+- 线性影响，20%人口增加导致20%需求增加
+- 建议: 规划时预留弹性容量
+
+### 4. 医疗紧急参数 - 影响程度: ★★☆☆☆
+- 患病率(1%-5%)和医疗用水(3-15L)对年补充量影响较小
+- 主要影响安全缓冲和首批运输量
+- 建议: 采用保守参数确保医疗安全
+
+### 5. 安全缓冲天数 - 影响程度: ★★★☆☆
+- 范围: 15 - 60天
+- 主要影响首批运输量，不影响年运输总量
+- 建议: 保持30天缓冲作为运输中断容忍度
+
+
+====================================================================================================
+## 最坏情况分析结论
+====================================================================================================
+
+### 可行性边界
+- 最坏情况 (α=250, η=80%, N=120k): 年需求约 562 kt，超出电梯运力
+- 中度压力 (α=100, η=85%, N=110k): 年需求约 132 kt，仍可承受
+- 系统崩溃临界点: 约 η < 82% + α > 200 组合
+
+### 风险缓解建议
+1. 水回收系统冗余设计，确保η≥85%
+2. 分阶段提升舒适度标准
+3. 维持混合运输能力作为备用
+4. 建立月球本地水源开发计划
--- a/p3/three_param_surface.png
+++ b/p3/three_param_surface.png
--- a/p3/tornado_analysis.png
+++ b/p3/tornado_analysis.png
--- a/p3/water_sensitivity_analysis.py
+++ b/p3/water_sensitivity_analysis.py
--- a/p3/worst_case_analysis.png
+++ b/p3/worst_case_analysis.png
--- a/p3/worst_case_results.csv
+++ b/p3/worst_case_results.csv
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+scenario,alpha,eta,sickness,population,buffer,daily_supply,annual_supply,initial_transport,annual_energy_pj,capacity_ratio,feasible
+Baseline,50.0,90.0,2.0,100.0,30,234.99999999999994,85774.99999999999,9315.448771614903,13.483829999999998,15.972998137802605,True
+Survival Mode,1.0,90.0,2.0,100.0,30,38.99999999999999,14234.999999999998,1475.448771614905,2.237742,2.650837988826815,True
+Comfort Mode,50.0,90.0,2.0,100.0,30,234.99999999999994,85774.99999999999,9315.448771614903,13.483829999999998,15.972998137802605,True
+Luxury Mode,250.0,90.0,2.0,100.0,30,1034.9999999999998,377774.99999999994,41315.4487716149,59.38622999999999,70.34916201117318,True
+Recycle Degradation,50.0,80.0,2.0,100.0,30,459.9999999999999,167899.99999999997,16065.448771614901,26.393879999999996,31.266294227188073,True
+Epidemic Outbreak,50.0,90.0,5.0,100.0,45,274.99999999999994,100374.99999999999,14697.149608147723,15.778949999999998,18.691806331471135,True
+Population Surge,50.0,90.0,2.0,120.0,30,281.99999999999994,102929.99999999999,11176.923281398456,16.180595999999998,19.167597765363126,True
+Worst Case,250.0,80.0,5.0,120.0,45,2519.9999999999995,919799.9999999999,125779.03593579533,144.59255999999996,171.2849162011173,False
+Moderate Stress,100.0,85.0,3.0,110.0,40,724.3500000000001,264387.75000000006,33685.85322736731,41.56175430000001,49.234217877094984,True