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2026-01-31 11:42:20 +08:00
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数据窗口,模型,饱和上限K,拐点年份,拐点发射数,R²,RMSE
全部数据,Logistic,405.92414403335295,2099.062819804582,202.96207201667647,0.07766486971853037,46.74814967377199
全部数据,Gompertz,401.0329954671314,2051.6490738033563,147.53179426375786,0.07545958812791254,46.80400317046386
全部数据,Richards,687.2209173212347,2256.999921701128,512.1739060128197,0.08220581306057739,46.632929826767096
近25年,Logistic,499998.291933841,2107.433566292766,249999.1459669205,0.8047914079948382,29.605437976518306
近25年,Gompertz,499999.9999896808,2216.1161350271577,183939.72058192495,0.779423273804876,31.47037146055304
近25年,Richards,16788.895636148314,2070.4580199940424,10907.704452410562,0.8048416215235632,29.60163002650332
近15年,Logistic,499999.9999933337,2082.166434872205,249999.99999666685,0.8979462268050302,23.639528906752357
近15年,Gompertz,499999.9999999759,2153.207304429069,183939.72058571232,0.8798702599574121,25.647766611285153
近15年,Richards,32126.622670684326,2061.1007442806736,20365.326256859138,0.8979860420054704,23.63491710078375
近10年,Logistic,499999.9996950232,2069.5299620988108,249999.9998475116,0.9632290653308331,15.01250946110567
近10年,Gompertz,499999.99999999994,2122.2979572477343,183939.72058572114,0.9542285701514692,16.74935931143396
近10年,Richards,23814.980027911413,2051.157710362777,15373.812459292129,0.9632499410027958,15.00824738946148
1 数据窗口 模型 饱和上限K 拐点年份 拐点发射数 R² RMSE
2 全部数据 Logistic 405.92414403335295 2099.062819804582 202.96207201667647 0.07766486971853037 46.74814967377199
3 全部数据 Gompertz 401.0329954671314 2051.6490738033563 147.53179426375786 0.07545958812791254 46.80400317046386
4 全部数据 Richards 687.2209173212347 2256.999921701128 512.1739060128197 0.08220581306057739 46.632929826767096
5 近25年 Logistic 499998.291933841 2107.433566292766 249999.1459669205 0.8047914079948382 29.605437976518306
6 近25年 Gompertz 499999.9999896808 2216.1161350271577 183939.72058192495 0.779423273804876 31.47037146055304
7 近25年 Richards 16788.895636148314 2070.4580199940424 10907.704452410562 0.8048416215235632 29.60163002650332
8 近15年 Logistic 499999.9999933337 2082.166434872205 249999.99999666685 0.8979462268050302 23.639528906752357
9 近15年 Gompertz 499999.9999999759 2153.207304429069 183939.72058571232 0.8798702599574121 25.647766611285153
10 近15年 Richards 32126.622670684326 2061.1007442806736 20365.326256859138 0.8979860420054704 23.63491710078375
11 近10年 Logistic 499999.9996950232 2069.5299620988108 249999.9998475116 0.9632290653308331 15.01250946110567
12 近10年 Gompertz 499999.99999999994 2122.2979572477343 183939.72058572114 0.9542285701514692 16.74935931143396
13 近10年 Richards 23814.980027911413 2051.157710362777 15373.812459292129 0.9632499410027958 15.00824738946148