729 lines
28 KiB
Python
729 lines
28 KiB
Python
"""
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Aviation Cost Structure Analysis
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证明：在成熟运输体系中，能源成本与总成本具有强相关性
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Data Source: MIT Airline Data Project / US DOT Form 41 via BTS
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"""
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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from matplotlib import rcParams
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import matplotlib.patches as mpatches
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# 设置字体和样式
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rcParams['font.sans-serif'] = ['Arial', 'DejaVu Sans', 'Helvetica']
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rcParams['axes.unicode_minus'] = False
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plt.style.use('seaborn-v0_8-whitegrid')
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# ============== 数据加载 ==============
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def load_data():
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"""加载并清洗所有Excel数据"""
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# 1. 燃油费用/ASM (美元)
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df_fuel = pd.read_excel('Fuel Expense per ASM.xls', engine='xlrd')
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# 2. 总费用/ASM (美分)
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df_total = pd.read_excel('System Total Expense per Available Seat Mile (CASM ex Transport Related).xls', engine='xlrd')
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# 3. 非人工费用/ASM (美分) - 不含燃油
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df_nonlabor = pd.read_excel('System Non-Labor Expense per Available Seat Mile (CASM ex fuel, Transport Related and Labor).xls', engine='xlrd')
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# 4. 总维护费用 (百万美元)
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df_maint = pd.read_excel('Total Flight Equipment Maintenance Expense.xls', engine='xlrd')
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# 提取年份 (第3行，从第3列开始)
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years_raw = df_fuel.iloc[2, 2:].dropna().values
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years = np.array([int(y) for y in years_raw])
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n_years = len(years)
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# 提取 "Total All Sectors" 行数据 (第28行，索引27)
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fuel_per_asm = df_fuel.iloc[27, 2:2+n_years].values.astype(float) # 美元
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total_per_asm = df_total.iloc[27, 2:2+n_years].values.astype(float) # 美分
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nonlabor_per_asm = df_nonlabor.iloc[27, 2:2+n_years].values.astype(float) # 美分
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maint_total = df_maint.iloc[27, 2:2+n_years].values.astype(float) # 百万美元
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# 统一单位为美分/ASM
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fuel_per_asm_cents = fuel_per_asm * 100 # 美元转美分
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return {
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'years': years,
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'fuel_cents': fuel_per_asm_cents,
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'total_cents': total_per_asm,
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'nonlabor_cents': nonlabor_per_asm,
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'maint_millions': maint_total,
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}
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# ============== 图表1: 燃油占比时间序列 ==============
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def plot_fuel_share_trend(data, save_path='fuel_share_trend.png'):
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"""绘制燃油成本占总成本的比例趋势"""
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years = data['years']
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fuel_cents = data['fuel_cents']
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total_cents = data['total_cents']
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# 计算燃油占比
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fuel_share = (fuel_cents / total_cents) * 100
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# 创建图表
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fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(14, 7))
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# 绘制燃油占比（左轴）
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color1 = '#E74C3C'
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ax1.fill_between(years, 0, fuel_share, alpha=0.3, color=color1)
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line1, = ax1.plot(years, fuel_share, 'o-', color=color1, linewidth=2.5,
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markersize=8, label='Fuel Share (%)')
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ax1.set_xlabel('Year', fontsize=13)
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ax1.set_ylabel('Fuel as % of Total Operating Cost', fontsize=13, color=color1)
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ax1.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor=color1)
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ax1.set_ylim(0, 45)
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# 添加平均线
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avg_share = np.mean(fuel_share)
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ax1.axhline(y=avg_share, color=color1, linestyle='--', linewidth=1.5, alpha=0.7)
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ax1.text(years[-1]+0.5, avg_share+1, f'Avg: {avg_share:.1f}%',
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fontsize=11, color=color1, fontweight='bold')
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# 右轴：绝对成本
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ax2 = ax1.twinx()
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color2 = '#3498DB'
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line2, = ax2.plot(years, total_cents, 's--', color=color2, linewidth=2,
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markersize=6, alpha=0.8, label='Total CASM (cents)')
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line3, = ax2.plot(years, fuel_cents, '^--', color='#27AE60', linewidth=2,
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markersize=6, alpha=0.8, label='Fuel CASM (cents)')
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ax2.set_ylabel('Cost per ASM (cents)', fontsize=13, color=color2)
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ax2.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor=color2)
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# 标注关键年份
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# 2008年油价高峰
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idx_2008 = np.where(years == 2008)[0][0]
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ax1.annotate(f'2008 Oil Crisis\n{fuel_share[idx_2008]:.1f}%',
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xy=(2008, fuel_share[idx_2008]),
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xytext=(2005, fuel_share[idx_2008]+8),
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fontsize=10, ha='center',
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arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->', color='gray'),
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bbox=dict(boxstyle='round,pad=0.3', facecolor='lightyellow', alpha=0.8))
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# 2015年油价低谷
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idx_2015 = np.where(years == 2015)[0][0]
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ax1.annotate(f'2015 Oil Crash\n{fuel_share[idx_2015]:.1f}%',
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xy=(2015, fuel_share[idx_2015]),
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xytext=(2017, fuel_share[idx_2015]-8),
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fontsize=10, ha='center',
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arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->', color='gray'),
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bbox=dict(boxstyle='round,pad=0.3', facecolor='lightcyan', alpha=0.8))
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# 图例
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lines = [line1, line2, line3]
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labels = [l.get_label() for l in lines]
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ax1.legend(lines, labels, loc='upper left', fontsize=11)
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plt.title('Aviation Industry: Fuel Cost as Percentage of Total Operating Cost\n'
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'(US Domestic Airlines, 1995-2018)', fontsize=15, fontweight='bold')
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# 添加数据来源
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fig.text(0.99, 0.01, 'Data Source: MIT Airline Data Project / US DOT Form 41',
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fontsize=9, ha='right', style='italic', alpha=0.7)
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plt.tight_layout()
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plt.savefig(save_path, dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')
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print(f"图表已保存: {save_path}")
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return fig
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# ============== 图表2: 成本收敛曲线 ==============
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def plot_cost_convergence(data, save_path='cost_convergence.png'):
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"""
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绘制成本收敛曲线：证明当复用次数增加时，总成本收敛于能源成本
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模型假设 (Boeing 737-800):
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- 飞机购置价: $80M
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- 设计寿命: 50,000 cycles
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- 平均航程: ~1000 miles/cycle
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"""
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# 飞机参数
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AIRCRAFT_PRICE = 80_000_000 # $80M
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DESIGN_LIFE_CYCLES = 50_000
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AVG_MILES_PER_CYCLE = 1000
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AVG_SEATS = 160 # B737-800 座位数
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# 从实际数据中提取 2018 年数据作为"成熟状态"参考
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idx_2018 = np.where(data['years'] == 2018)[0][0]
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fuel_per_asm_cents = data['fuel_cents'][idx_2018]
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total_per_asm_cents = data['total_cents'][idx_2018]
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nonlabor_per_asm_cents = data['nonlabor_cents'][idx_2018]
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# 计算单次飞行（cycle）的成本
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asm_per_cycle = AVG_MILES_PER_CYCLE * AVG_SEATS
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fuel_per_cycle = fuel_per_asm_cents / 100 * asm_per_cycle # 美元
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ops_per_cycle = (total_per_asm_cents - fuel_per_asm_cents) / 100 * asm_per_cycle # 其他运营成本
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print(f"\n=== 2018年单次飞行成本估算 (B737-800) ===")
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print(f"ASM per cycle: {asm_per_cycle:,}")
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print(f"Fuel cost per cycle: ${fuel_per_cycle:,.0f}")
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print(f"Other ops per cycle: ${ops_per_cycle:,.0f}")
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print(f"Total ops per cycle: ${fuel_per_cycle + ops_per_cycle:,.0f}")
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# 复用次数范围
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N = np.logspace(0, np.log10(DESIGN_LIFE_CYCLES * 2), 500) # 1 到 100,000
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# 成本模型
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amortized_hardware = AIRCRAFT_PRICE / N
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energy_cost = np.full_like(N, fuel_per_cycle)
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other_ops_cost = np.full_like(N, ops_per_cycle)
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total_cost = amortized_hardware + energy_cost + other_ops_cost
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# 创建图表
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fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(14, 8))
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# 填充区域
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ax.fill_between(N, 0, energy_cost, alpha=0.4, color='#E74C3C', label='Energy (Fuel) Cost')
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ax.fill_between(N, energy_cost, energy_cost + other_ops_cost, alpha=0.3, color='#3498DB', label='Other Operating Cost')
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ax.fill_between(N, energy_cost + other_ops_cost, total_cost, alpha=0.3, color='#95A5A6', label='Amortized Hardware')
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# 总成本线
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ax.plot(N, total_cost, 'k-', linewidth=3, label='Total Cost per Flight')
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# 渐进线（能量底限）
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asymptote = fuel_per_cycle + ops_per_cycle
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ax.axhline(y=asymptote, color='#E74C3C', linestyle='--', linewidth=2, alpha=0.8)
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ax.text(1.5, asymptote * 1.05, f'Asymptote: ${asymptote:,.0f}', fontsize=11,
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color='#E74C3C', fontweight='bold')
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# 标记关键点
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# N=1 (一次性)
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ax.plot(1, total_cost[0], 'ro', markersize=12, zorder=5)
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ax.annotate(f'N=1 (Expendable)\n${total_cost[0]/1e6:.1f}M',
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xy=(1, total_cost[0]), xytext=(3, total_cost[0]*0.7),
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fontsize=10, ha='left',
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arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->', color='red'),
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bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='mistyrose', alpha=0.9))
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# N=20 (Falcon 9 现状)
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idx_20 = np.argmin(np.abs(N - 20))
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ax.plot(20, total_cost[idx_20], 'o', color='orange', markersize=10, zorder=5)
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ax.annotate(f'N=20 (Falcon 9)\n${total_cost[idx_20]/1e6:.2f}M',
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xy=(20, total_cost[idx_20]), xytext=(50, total_cost[idx_20]*1.5),
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fontsize=10, ha='left',
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arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->', color='orange'),
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bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='moccasin', alpha=0.9))
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# N=50,000 (航空业)
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idx_50k = np.argmin(np.abs(N - 50000))
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ax.plot(50000, total_cost[idx_50k], 'go', markersize=12, zorder=5)
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ax.annotate(f'N=50,000 (Aviation)\n${total_cost[idx_50k]:,.0f}',
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xy=(50000, total_cost[idx_50k]), xytext=(10000, total_cost[idx_50k]*3),
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fontsize=10, ha='center',
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arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->', color='green'),
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bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='honeydew', alpha=0.9))
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# 标记"能量主导区"
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ax.axvspan(5000, N[-1], alpha=0.1, color='green')
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ax.text(20000, ax.get_ylim()[1]*0.15, 'Energy Dominance Zone', fontsize=12,
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color='green', fontweight='bold', ha='center', style='italic')
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ax.set_xscale('log')
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ax.set_yscale('log')
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ax.set_xlabel('Number of Reuses (N)', fontsize=13)
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ax.set_ylabel('Cost per Flight ($)', fontsize=13)
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ax.set_title('Cost Convergence: Hardware Amortization → Energy Dominance\n'
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'(Boeing 737-800 Model, 2018 US Airline Data)', fontsize=15, fontweight='bold')
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ax.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=11)
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ax.set_xlim(0.8, N[-1]*1.5)
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ax.grid(True, which='both', alpha=0.3)
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# 添加公式
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formula_text = r'$Cost(N) = \frac{C_{hardware}}{N} + C_{fuel} + C_{ops}$'
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ax.text(0.02, 0.02, formula_text, transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=14,
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verticalalignment='bottom', bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='white', alpha=0.9))
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plt.tight_layout()
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plt.savefig(save_path, dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')
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print(f"图表已保存: {save_path}")
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return fig
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# ============== 图表3: 成本结构对比 (饼图) ==============
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def plot_cost_structure_comparison(data, save_path='cost_structure_comparison.png'):
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"""
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对比三种场景的成本结构：
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1. 一次性火箭 (N=1)
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2. 可复用火箭 (N=20, Falcon 9)
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3. 成熟航空业 (N=50,000)
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"""
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# 参数
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AIRCRAFT_PRICE = 80_000_000
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ROCKET_PRICE = 60_000_000 # Falcon 9 估算
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# 从 2018 数据估算单次成本
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idx_2018 = np.where(data['years'] == 2018)[0][0]
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fuel_per_asm = data['fuel_cents'][idx_2018] / 100 # 美元
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total_per_asm = data['total_cents'][idx_2018] / 100
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# 飞机参数
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asm_per_flight = 160_000 # 160 seats * 1000 miles
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fuel_cost = fuel_per_asm * asm_per_flight
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other_ops = (total_per_asm - fuel_per_asm) * asm_per_flight
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# 火箭参数 (估算)
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rocket_fuel = 500_000 # $500K 燃料
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rocket_ops = 1_000_000 # $1M 地面运营
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# 三种场景
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scenarios = {
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'Expendable Rocket\n(N=1)': {
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'Hardware': ROCKET_PRICE / 1,
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'Fuel/Energy': rocket_fuel,
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'Operations': rocket_ops,
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},
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'Reusable Rocket\n(N=20, e.g. Falcon 9)': {
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'Hardware': ROCKET_PRICE / 20,
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'Fuel/Energy': rocket_fuel,
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'Operations': rocket_ops,
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},
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'Commercial Aviation\n(N=50,000)': {
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'Hardware': AIRCRAFT_PRICE / 50000,
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'Fuel/Energy': fuel_cost,
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'Operations': other_ops,
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},
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}
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# 创建图表
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fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 3, figsize=(16, 6))
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colors = ['#95A5A6', '#E74C3C', '#3498DB'] # 灰色(硬件), 红色(能源), 蓝色(运营)
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for idx, (scenario_name, costs) in enumerate(scenarios.items()):
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ax = axes[idx]
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values = list(costs.values())
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labels = list(costs.keys())
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total = sum(values)
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# 计算百分比
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percentages = [v/total*100 for v in values]
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# 绘制饼图
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wedges, texts, autotexts = ax.pie(
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values,
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labels=None,
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autopct=lambda pct: f'{pct:.1f}%' if pct > 3 else '',
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colors=colors,
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explode=(0.02, 0.05, 0.02),
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startangle=90,
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pctdistance=0.6,
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textprops={'fontsize': 11, 'fontweight': 'bold'}
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)
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ax.set_title(f'{scenario_name}\nTotal: ${total:,.0f}', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold')
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# 添加能源占比高亮
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fuel_pct = percentages[1]
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if fuel_pct < 5:
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highlight_color = 'lightcoral'
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note = 'Energy: Negligible!'
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elif fuel_pct < 20:
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highlight_color = 'lightyellow'
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note = f'Energy: {fuel_pct:.1f}%'
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else:
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highlight_color = 'lightgreen'
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note = f'Energy: {fuel_pct:.1f}%'
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ax.text(0, -1.4, note, ha='center', fontsize=11, fontweight='bold',
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bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor=highlight_color, alpha=0.8))
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# 添加统一图例
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legend_patches = [
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mpatches.Patch(color=colors[0], label='Hardware (Amortized)'),
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mpatches.Patch(color=colors[1], label='Fuel / Energy'),
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mpatches.Patch(color=colors[2], label='Other Operations'),
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]
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fig.legend(handles=legend_patches, loc='lower center', ncol=3, fontsize=12,
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bbox_to_anchor=(0.5, -0.02))
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plt.suptitle('Cost Structure Evolution: From Hardware-Dominant to Energy-Dominant\n'
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'(Transition as Reusability Increases)', fontsize=15, fontweight='bold', y=1.02)
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plt.tight_layout()
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plt.savefig(save_path, dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')
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print(f"图表已保存: {save_path}")
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return fig
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# ============== 图表4: 相关性分析 ==============
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def plot_correlation_analysis(data, save_path='energy_cost_correlation.png'):
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"""
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分析燃油成本与总成本的相关性
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证明：在成熟系统中，能源是成本的主要驱动因素
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"""
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years = data['years']
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fuel = data['fuel_cents']
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total = data['total_cents']
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# 计算相关系数
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correlation = np.corrcoef(fuel, total)[0, 1]
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# 线性回归
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coeffs = np.polyfit(fuel, total, 1)
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poly = np.poly1d(coeffs)
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fuel_range = np.linspace(fuel.min(), fuel.max(), 100)
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# 创建图表
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fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(14, 6))
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# 左图：散点图 + 回归线
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ax1 = axes[0]
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scatter = ax1.scatter(fuel, total, c=years, cmap='viridis', s=100, alpha=0.8,
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edgecolors='white', linewidth=1.5)
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ax1.plot(fuel_range, poly(fuel_range), 'r--', linewidth=2, label=f'Linear Fit (R²={correlation**2:.3f})')
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# 颜色条
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cbar = plt.colorbar(scatter, ax=ax1)
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cbar.set_label('Year', fontsize=11)
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|
||
ax1.set_xlabel('Fuel Cost per ASM (cents)', fontsize=12)
|
||
ax1.set_ylabel('Total Cost per ASM (cents)', fontsize=12)
|
||
ax1.set_title(f'Fuel Cost vs Total Cost Correlation\n'
|
||
f'Pearson r = {correlation:.3f}', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||
ax1.legend(fontsize=11)
|
||
ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
|
||
|
||
# 添加相关性解释
|
||
ax1.text(0.05, 0.95, f'Strong Positive Correlation\nEnergy drives ~{correlation**2*100:.0f}% of cost variance',
|
||
transform=ax1.transAxes, fontsize=10, verticalalignment='top',
|
||
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='lightgreen', alpha=0.8))
|
||
|
||
# 右图：时间序列对比（归一化）
|
||
ax2 = axes[1]
|
||
|
||
# 归一化到基准年 (1995)
|
||
fuel_norm = fuel / fuel[0] * 100
|
||
total_norm = total / total[0] * 100
|
||
|
||
ax2.plot(years, fuel_norm, 'o-', color='#E74C3C', linewidth=2.5, markersize=8, label='Fuel Cost (Indexed)')
|
||
ax2.plot(years, total_norm, 's-', color='#3498DB', linewidth=2.5, markersize=8, label='Total Cost (Indexed)')
|
||
|
||
ax2.axhline(y=100, color='gray', linestyle=':', alpha=0.7)
|
||
ax2.set_xlabel('Year', fontsize=12)
|
||
ax2.set_ylabel('Index (1995 = 100)', fontsize=12)
|
||
ax2.set_title('Fuel and Total Cost Co-movement\n(Indexed to 1995)', fontsize=13, fontweight='bold')
|
||
ax2.legend(fontsize=11)
|
||
ax2.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
|
||
|
||
# 标注关键时期
|
||
ax2.axvspan(2007, 2009, alpha=0.2, color='red', label='Oil Spike')
|
||
ax2.axvspan(2014, 2016, alpha=0.2, color='blue', label='Oil Crash')
|
||
|
||
plt.suptitle('Evidence: Energy Cost Strongly Correlates with Total Operating Cost\n'
|
||
'(US Domestic Airlines Industry)', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', y=1.02)
|
||
|
||
plt.tight_layout()
|
||
plt.savefig(save_path, dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')
|
||
print(f"图表已保存: {save_path}")
|
||
|
||
# 打印统计信息
|
||
print(f"\n=== 相关性分析结果 ===")
|
||
print(f"Pearson相关系数: {correlation:.4f}")
|
||
print(f"R²决定系数: {correlation**2:.4f}")
|
||
print(f"回归方程: Total = {coeffs[0]:.3f} × Fuel + {coeffs[1]:.3f}")
|
||
|
||
return fig
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ============== 图表5: 综合信息图 ==============
|
||
|
||
def plot_comprehensive_summary(data, save_path='aviation_cost_summary.png'):
|
||
"""
|
||
创建一张综合性的信息图，用于论文
|
||
"""
|
||
|
||
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(16, 12))
|
||
|
||
# 布局
|
||
gs = fig.add_gridspec(2, 2, hspace=0.3, wspace=0.25)
|
||
|
||
years = data['years']
|
||
fuel = data['fuel_cents']
|
||
total = data['total_cents']
|
||
nonlabor = data['nonlabor_cents']
|
||
|
||
# ========== 左上：燃油占比趋势 ==========
|
||
ax1 = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, 0])
|
||
fuel_share = (fuel / total) * 100
|
||
|
||
ax1.fill_between(years, 0, fuel_share, alpha=0.4, color='#E74C3C')
|
||
ax1.plot(years, fuel_share, 'o-', color='#E74C3C', linewidth=2.5, markersize=6)
|
||
|
||
avg_share = np.mean(fuel_share)
|
||
ax1.axhline(y=avg_share, color='darkred', linestyle='--', linewidth=1.5)
|
||
ax1.text(2017, avg_share+2, f'Avg: {avg_share:.1f}%', fontsize=10, fontweight='bold', color='darkred')
|
||
|
||
ax1.set_xlabel('Year', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax1.set_ylabel('Fuel Share (%)', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax1.set_title('(A) Fuel as % of Total Operating Cost', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold')
|
||
ax1.set_ylim(0, 45)
|
||
ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
|
||
|
||
# ========== 右上：成本构成堆叠图 ==========
|
||
ax2 = fig.add_subplot(gs[0, 1])
|
||
|
||
labor_cents = total - fuel - nonlabor # 劳动力成本 = 总成本 - 燃油 - 非劳动力
|
||
|
||
ax2.fill_between(years, 0, fuel, alpha=0.8, color='#E74C3C', label='Fuel')
|
||
ax2.fill_between(years, fuel, fuel + nonlabor, alpha=0.8, color='#3498DB', label='Non-Labor (ex Fuel)')
|
||
ax2.fill_between(years, fuel + nonlabor, total, alpha=0.8, color='#2ECC71', label='Labor & Related')
|
||
|
||
ax2.set_xlabel('Year', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax2.set_ylabel('CASM (cents)', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax2.set_title('(B) Cost Structure Breakdown (Stacked)', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold')
|
||
ax2.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=9)
|
||
ax2.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
|
||
|
||
# ========== 左下：收敛曲线 ==========
|
||
ax3 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 0])
|
||
|
||
# 简化的收敛模型
|
||
N = np.logspace(0, 5, 200)
|
||
hardware = 80_000_000 / N
|
||
fuel_cost = 5000 # 单次飞行燃油
|
||
ops_cost = 4000 # 其他运营
|
||
total_cost = hardware + fuel_cost + ops_cost
|
||
|
||
ax3.fill_between(N, 0, fuel_cost, alpha=0.5, color='#E74C3C', label='Energy (Fuel)')
|
||
ax3.fill_between(N, fuel_cost, fuel_cost + ops_cost, alpha=0.4, color='#3498DB', label='Operations')
|
||
ax3.fill_between(N, fuel_cost + ops_cost, total_cost, alpha=0.3, color='#95A5A6', label='Hardware')
|
||
ax3.plot(N, total_cost, 'k-', linewidth=2.5)
|
||
|
||
ax3.axhline(y=fuel_cost + ops_cost, color='#E74C3C', linestyle='--', linewidth=1.5)
|
||
|
||
# 标记点
|
||
ax3.plot(1, total_cost[0], 'ro', markersize=10)
|
||
ax3.plot(20, hardware[np.argmin(np.abs(N-20))] + fuel_cost + ops_cost, 'o', color='orange', markersize=10)
|
||
ax3.plot(50000, total_cost[np.argmin(np.abs(N-50000))], 'go', markersize=10)
|
||
|
||
ax3.text(1.5, total_cost[0]*0.6, 'N=1\nExpendable', fontsize=9, ha='left')
|
||
ax3.text(25, 5e6, 'N=20\nFalcon 9', fontsize=9, ha='left')
|
||
ax3.text(30000, 15000, 'N=50K\nAviation', fontsize=9, ha='left')
|
||
|
||
ax3.set_xscale('log')
|
||
ax3.set_yscale('log')
|
||
ax3.set_xlabel('Number of Reuses (N)', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax3.set_ylabel('Cost per Flight ($)', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax3.set_title('(C) Cost Convergence Model', fontsize=12, fontweight='bold')
|
||
ax3.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=9)
|
||
ax3.grid(True, which='both', alpha=0.3)
|
||
|
||
# ========== 右下：相关性散点图 ==========
|
||
ax4 = fig.add_subplot(gs[1, 1])
|
||
|
||
correlation = np.corrcoef(fuel, total)[0, 1]
|
||
coeffs = np.polyfit(fuel, total, 1)
|
||
|
||
scatter = ax4.scatter(fuel, total, c=years, cmap='plasma', s=80, alpha=0.8, edgecolors='white')
|
||
fuel_range = np.linspace(fuel.min(), fuel.max(), 100)
|
||
ax4.plot(fuel_range, np.poly1d(coeffs)(fuel_range), 'r--', linewidth=2)
|
||
|
||
ax4.set_xlabel('Fuel Cost (cents/ASM)', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax4.set_ylabel('Total Cost (cents/ASM)', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax4.set_title(f'(D) Fuel-Total Cost Correlation\n(r = {correlation:.3f}, R² = {correlation**2:.3f})',
|
||
fontsize=12, fontweight='bold')
|
||
ax4.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
|
||
|
||
cbar = plt.colorbar(scatter, ax=ax4)
|
||
cbar.set_label('Year', fontsize=10)
|
||
|
||
# 主标题
|
||
fig.suptitle('Aviation Industry Cost Analysis: Evidence for Energy-Cost Correlation\n'
|
||
'(US Domestic Airlines, 1995-2018 | Data: MIT Airline Data Project)',
|
||
fontsize=16, fontweight='bold', y=1.01)
|
||
|
||
plt.tight_layout()
|
||
plt.savefig(save_path, dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')
|
||
print(f"综合图表已保存: {save_path}")
|
||
|
||
return fig
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ============== 图表6: 燃油占比趋势（简洁版，中低饱和度）==============
|
||
|
||
def plot_fuel_share_trend_simple(data, save_path='fuel_share_trend.png'):
|
||
"""绘制燃油成本占总成本的比例趋势 - 简洁版，无标题，中低饱和度色调"""
|
||
|
||
years = data['years']
|
||
fuel_cents = data['fuel_cents']
|
||
total_cents = data['total_cents']
|
||
|
||
# 计算燃油占比
|
||
fuel_share = (fuel_cents / total_cents) * 100
|
||
|
||
# 创建图表 - 更小但保持2:1比例
|
||
fig, ax1 = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 5))
|
||
|
||
# 中低饱和度色调
|
||
color1 = '#B87373' # 柔和的红色/玫瑰色
|
||
color2 = '#6B8FAF' # 柔和的蓝色
|
||
color3 = '#7AAE7A' # 柔和的绿色
|
||
|
||
# 绘制燃油占比（左轴）
|
||
ax1.fill_between(years, 0, fuel_share, alpha=0.25, color=color1)
|
||
line1, = ax1.plot(years, fuel_share, 'o-', color=color1, linewidth=2,
|
||
markersize=6, label='Fuel Share (%)')
|
||
ax1.set_xlabel('Year', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax1.set_ylabel('Fuel as % of Total Operating Cost', fontsize=11, color=color1)
|
||
ax1.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor=color1)
|
||
ax1.set_ylim(0, 45)
|
||
|
||
# 添加平均线
|
||
avg_share = np.mean(fuel_share)
|
||
ax1.axhline(y=avg_share, color=color1, linestyle='--', linewidth=1.2, alpha=0.6)
|
||
ax1.text(years[-1]+0.5, avg_share+1, f'Avg: {avg_share:.1f}%',
|
||
fontsize=10, color=color1, fontweight='bold')
|
||
|
||
# 右轴：绝对成本
|
||
ax2 = ax1.twinx()
|
||
line2, = ax2.plot(years, total_cents, 's--', color=color2, linewidth=1.8,
|
||
markersize=5, alpha=0.75, label='Total CASM (cents)')
|
||
line3, = ax2.plot(years, fuel_cents, '^--', color=color3, linewidth=1.8,
|
||
markersize=5, alpha=0.75, label='Fuel CASM (cents)')
|
||
ax2.set_ylabel('Cost per ASM (cents)', fontsize=11, color=color2)
|
||
ax2.tick_params(axis='y', labelcolor=color2)
|
||
|
||
# 标注关键年份
|
||
# 2008年油价高峰
|
||
idx_2008 = np.where(years == 2008)[0][0]
|
||
ax1.annotate(f'2008 Oil Crisis\n{fuel_share[idx_2008]:.1f}%',
|
||
xy=(2008, fuel_share[idx_2008]),
|
||
xytext=(2005, fuel_share[idx_2008]+8),
|
||
fontsize=9, ha='center',
|
||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->', color='#888888'),
|
||
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round,pad=0.3', facecolor='#FFF5E6', alpha=0.8))
|
||
|
||
# 2015年油价低谷
|
||
idx_2015 = np.where(years == 2015)[0][0]
|
||
ax1.annotate(f'2015 Oil Crash\n{fuel_share[idx_2015]:.1f}%',
|
||
xy=(2015, fuel_share[idx_2015]),
|
||
xytext=(2017, fuel_share[idx_2015]-8),
|
||
fontsize=9, ha='center',
|
||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle='->', color='#888888'),
|
||
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round,pad=0.3', facecolor='#E6F3FA', alpha=0.8))
|
||
|
||
# 图例
|
||
lines = [line1, line2, line3]
|
||
labels = [l.get_label() for l in lines]
|
||
ax1.legend(lines, labels, loc='upper left', fontsize=10)
|
||
|
||
# 添加数据来源
|
||
fig.text(0.99, 0.01, 'Data Source: MIT Airline Data Project / US DOT Form 41',
|
||
fontsize=8, ha='right', style='italic', alpha=0.6)
|
||
|
||
plt.tight_layout()
|
||
plt.savefig(save_path, dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')
|
||
print(f"图表已保存: {save_path}")
|
||
|
||
return fig
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ============== 图表7: 燃油-总成本相关性散点图（单独版）==============
|
||
|
||
def plot_fuel_total_correlation_scatter(data, save_path='fuel_total_correlation.png'):
|
||
"""绘制燃油成本与总成本的相关性散点图 - 单独版，无标题，中低饱和度色调"""
|
||
|
||
years = data['years']
|
||
fuel = data['fuel_cents']
|
||
total = data['total_cents']
|
||
|
||
# 计算相关系数
|
||
correlation = np.corrcoef(fuel, total)[0, 1]
|
||
|
||
# 线性回归
|
||
coeffs = np.polyfit(fuel, total, 1)
|
||
poly = np.poly1d(coeffs)
|
||
fuel_range = np.linspace(fuel.min(), fuel.max(), 100)
|
||
|
||
# 创建图表 - 与fuel_share_trend类似的尺寸比例
|
||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 5))
|
||
|
||
# 中低饱和度色调 - 与fuel_share_trend类似但不完全相同
|
||
scatter_cmap = 'YlGnBu' # 柔和的黄-绿-蓝渐变色
|
||
line_color = '#9B7B6B' # 柔和的棕红色
|
||
text_bg_color = '#D4E8D4' # 柔和的淡绿色
|
||
|
||
# 散点图
|
||
scatter = ax.scatter(fuel, total, c=years, cmap=scatter_cmap, s=90, alpha=0.85,
|
||
edgecolors='white', linewidth=1.2)
|
||
|
||
# 回归线
|
||
ax.plot(fuel_range, poly(fuel_range), '--', color=line_color, linewidth=2,
|
||
label=f'Linear Fit (R²={correlation**2:.3f})')
|
||
|
||
# 颜色条
|
||
cbar = plt.colorbar(scatter, ax=ax)
|
||
cbar.set_label('Year', fontsize=10)
|
||
|
||
ax.set_xlabel('Fuel Cost per ASM (cents)', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax.set_ylabel('Total Cost per ASM (cents)', fontsize=11)
|
||
ax.legend(fontsize=10, loc='lower right')
|
||
ax.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
|
||
|
||
# 添加相关性解释
|
||
ax.text(0.05, 0.95, f'Pearson r = {correlation:.3f}\nEnergy drives ~{correlation**2*100:.0f}% of cost variance',
|
||
transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=10, verticalalignment='top',
|
||
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor=text_bg_color, alpha=0.8))
|
||
|
||
# 添加数据来源
|
||
fig.text(0.99, 0.01, 'Data Source: MIT Airline Data Project / US DOT Form 41',
|
||
fontsize=8, ha='right', style='italic', alpha=0.6)
|
||
|
||
plt.tight_layout()
|
||
plt.savefig(save_path, dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')
|
||
print(f"图表已保存: {save_path}")
|
||
|
||
return fig
|
||
|
||
|
||
# ============== 主程序 ==============
|
||
|
||
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||
print("=" * 60)
|
||
print("Aviation Cost Structure Analysis")
|
||
print("证明：成熟运输系统中能源与成本的相关性")
|
||
print("=" * 60)
|
||
|
||
# 加载数据
|
||
data = load_data()
|
||
|
||
print(f"\n数据范围: {data['years'][0]} - {data['years'][-1]}")
|
||
print(f"年份数量: {len(data['years'])}")
|
||
|
||
# 打印关键统计
|
||
fuel_share = data['fuel_cents'] / data['total_cents'] * 100
|
||
print(f"\n燃油占比统计:")
|
||
print(f" 平均值: {np.mean(fuel_share):.1f}%")
|
||
print(f" 最大值: {np.max(fuel_share):.1f}% ({data['years'][np.argmax(fuel_share)]})")
|
||
print(f" 最小值: {np.min(fuel_share):.1f}% ({data['years'][np.argmin(fuel_share)]})")
|
||
|
||
# 生成图表
|
||
print("\n正在生成图表...")
|
||
|
||
plot_fuel_share_trend(data)
|
||
plot_cost_convergence(data)
|
||
plot_cost_structure_comparison(data)
|
||
plot_correlation_analysis(data)
|
||
plot_comprehensive_summary(data)
|
||
|
||
print("\n" + "=" * 60)
|
||
print("所有图表生成完成！")
|
||
print("=" * 60)
|