modify: use deepseek api

.gitignore

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+sample/
+strategy_evaluation_results.csv
+run_metadata.json
+*.log
+simulation.html
+.DS_Store
+overview_series.html
+tmp/
+__pycache__/
+*.py[cod]
+.venv/
+.streamlit/

AGENTS.md

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+# Repository Guidelines
+
+## Project Structure & Module Organization
+- Source: `app.py` (Streamlit UI, data processing, forecasting, anomaly detection, evaluation).
+- Docs & outputs: `docs/`, `overview_series.html`, `strategy_evaluation_results.csv`.
+- Samples: `sample/` for example data only; avoid sensitive content.
+- Meta: `requirements.txt`, `readme.md`, `LICENSE`, `CHANGELOG.md`.
+
+## Build, Test, and Development Commands
+- Create env: `python -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate` (or follow conda steps in `readme.md`).
+- Install deps: `pip install -r requirements.txt`.
+- Run app: `streamlit run app.py` then open `http://localhost:8501`.
+- Export artifacts: charts save as HTML (Plotly); forecasts may be written to CSV as noted in `readme.md`.
+
+## Coding Style & Naming Conventions
+- Python ≥3.8; 4-space indentation; UTF-8.
+- Names: functions/variables `snake_case`; classes `PascalCase`; constants `UPPER_SNAKE_CASE`.
+- Files: keep scope focused; use descriptive output names (e.g., `arima_forecast.csv`).
+- Data handling: prefer pandas/NumPy vectorization; validate inputs; avoid global state except constants.
+
+## Testing Guidelines
+- Framework: pytest (recommended). Place tests under `tests/`.
+- Naming: `test_<module>.py` and `test_<behavior>()`.
+- Run: `pytest -q`. Focus on `load_and_clean_data`, aggregation, model selection, and metrics.
+- Keep tests fast and deterministic; avoid large I/O. Use small DataFrame fixtures.
+
+## Commit & Pull Request Guidelines
+- Messages: concise, present tense. Prefixes seen: `modify:`, `Add`, `Update`.
+- Include scope and reason: e.g., `modify: update requirements for statsmodels`.
+- PRs: clear description, linked issues, repro steps/screenshots for UI, and notes on any schema or output changes.
+
+## Security & Configuration Tips
+- Do not commit real accident data or secrets. Use `sample/` for examples.
+- Optional envs: `LOG_LEVEL=DEBUG`. Keep any API keys in environment variables, not in code.
+- Validate Excel column names before processing; handle missing columns/rows defensively.
+

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
 ## [1.1.0] - 2025-08-28
 
 ### Added
-- Integrated GPT-based analysis for comprehensive traffic safety insights
+- Integrated AI-based analysis for comprehensive traffic safety insights
 - Added automated report generation with AI-powered recommendations
 - Implemented natural language query processing for data exploration
 - Added export functionality for analysis reports (PDF/CSV formats)
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
 - Addressed memory leaks in large dataset processing
 
 ### Documentation
-- Updated README with new GPT analysis features and usage examples
+- Updated README with new AI analysis features and usage examples
 - Added API documentation for extended functionality
 - Included sample datasets and tutorial guides
 
@@ -44,4 +44,4 @@
 
 ### Fixed
 
-- Resolved session state KeyError.
+- Resolved session state KeyError.

Dockerfile

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+# Use an official Python runtime as a parent image
+FROM python:3.12-slim
+
+# Prevents writing .pyc files and buffering stdout/stderr
+ENV PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1
+ENV PYTHONUNBUFFERED=1
+
+# Set working directory
+WORKDIR /app
+
+# Copy requirements first to leverage Docker cache
+COPY requirements.txt .
+
+# Install system dependencies (if needed) and Python deps
+RUN apt-get update && apt-get install -y --no-install-recommends \
+    build-essential \
+    && rm -rf /var/lib/apt/lists/*
+
+RUN pip install --upgrade pip
+RUN pip install --no-cache-dir -r requirements.txt
+
+# Copy app code
+COPY . .
+
+# Expose Streamlit default port
+EXPOSE 8501
+
+# Streamlit config: run headless and bind to 0.0.0.0
+ENV STREAMLIT_SERVER_HEADLESS=true
+ENV STREAMLIT_SERVER_ENABLE_CORS=false
+ENV STREAMLIT_SERVER_ENABLE_XSRF_PROTECTION=false
+ENV STREAMLIT_SERVER_PORT=8501
+ENV STREAMLIT_SERVER_ADDRESS=0.0.0.0
+
+# Run Streamlit
+CMD ["streamlit", "run", "app.py", "--server.port=8501", "--server.address=0.0.0.0"]

config/settings.py

@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+# Default configuration and feature flags
+
+# Forecasting
+ARIMA_P = range(0, 4)
+ARIMA_D = range(0, 2)
+ARIMA_Q = range(0, 4)
+
+DEFAULT_HORIZON_PREDICT = 30
+DEFAULT_HORIZON_EVAL = 14
+MIN_PRE_DAYS = 5
+MAX_PRE_DAYS = 120
+
+# Anomaly detection
+ANOMALY_N_ESTIMATORS = 50
+ANOMALY_CONTAMINATION = 0.10
+
+# Performance flags
+FAST_MODE = True
+

docs/install.md

@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+# Installation Guide
+
+This document explains how to set up TrafficSafeAnalyzer for local development and exploration. The application runs on Streamlit and officially supports Python 3.8.
+
+## Prerequisites
+- Python 3.8 (3.9+ is not yet validated; use 3.8 to avoid dependency issues)
+- Git
+- `pip` (bundled with Python)
+- Optional: Conda (for environment management) or Docker (for container-based runs)
+
+## 1. Obtain the source code
+
+```bash
+git clone https://github.com/tongnian0613/TrafficSafeAnalyzer.git
+cd TrafficSafeAnalyzer
+```
+
+If you already have the repository, pull the latest changes instead:
+
+```bash
+git pull origin main
+```
+
+## 2. Create a dedicated environment
+
+### Option A: Built-in virtual environment
+
+```bash
+python -m venv .venv
+source .venv/bin/activate   # Windows: .venv\Scripts\activate
+```
+
+### Option B: Conda environment
+
+```bash
+conda create -n trafficsa python=3.8 -y
+conda activate trafficsa
+```
+
+## 3. Install project dependencies
+
+Install the full dependency set listed in `requirements.txt`:
+
+```bash
+pip install -r requirements.txt
+```
+
+If you prefer a minimal installation before pulling in extras, install the core stack first:
+
+```bash
+pip install streamlit pandas numpy matplotlib plotly scikit-learn statsmodels scipy
+```
+
+Then add optional packages as needed (Excel readers, auto-refresh, OpenAI integration):
+
+```bash
+pip install streamlit-autorefresh openpyxl xlrd cryptography openai
+```
+
+## 4. Verify the setup
+
+1. Ensure the environment is still active (`which python` should point to `.venv` or the conda env).
+2. Launch the Streamlit app:
+
+   ```bash
+   streamlit run app.py
+   ```
+
+3. Open `http://localhost:8501` in your browser. The home page should load without import errors.
+
+## 5. Run with Docker (optional)
+
+If you prefer an isolated container build, use the included `Dockerfile`:
+
+```bash
+docker build -t trafficsafeanalyzer .
+docker run --rm -p 8501:8501 trafficsafeanalyzer
+```
+
+To work with local data, mount the host folder containing Excel files:
+
+```bash
+docker run --rm -p 8501:8501 \
+  -v "$(pwd)/sample:/app/sample" \
+  trafficsafeanalyzer
+```
+
+The container exposes Streamlit on port 8501 by default. Override configuration via environment variables when needed, for example `-e STREAMLIT_SERVER_PORT=8502`.
+
+## Troubleshooting tips
+
+- **Missing package**: Re-run `pip install -r requirements.txt`.
+- **Python version mismatch**: Confirm `python --version` reports 3.8.x inside your environment.
+- **OpenSSL or cryptography errors** (macOS/Linux): Update the system OpenSSL libraries and reinstall `cryptography`.
+- **Taking too long to install**: if a dependency download stalls due to a firewall, retry using a mirror (`-i https://pypi.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn/simple`) consistent with your environment policy.
+
+After a successful launch, continue with the usage guide in `docs/usage.md` to load data and explore forecasts.

docs/usage.md

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+# Usage Guide
+
+TrafficSafeAnalyzer delivers accident analytics and decision support through a Streamlit interface. This guide walks through the daily workflow, expected inputs, and where to find generated artefacts.
+
+## Start the app
+
+1. Activate your virtual or conda environment（或在容器中运行，见下）.
+2. From the project root, run:
+
+   ```bash
+   streamlit run app.py
+   ```
+
+3. Open `http://localhost:8501`. Keep the terminal running while you work in the browser.
+
+> 使用 Docker？运行 `docker build -t trafficsafeanalyzer .` 与 `docker run --rm -p 8501:8501 trafficsafeanalyzer` 后，同样访问 `http://localhost:8501`。
+
+## Load input data
+
+Use the sidebar form labelled “数据与筛选”.
+
+- **Accident data (`.xlsx`)** — columns should include at minimum:
+  - `事故时间` (timestamp)
+  - `所在街道` (region or district)
+  - `事故类型`
+  - `事故数`/`accident_count` (if absent, the loader aggregates counts)
+- **Strategy data (`.xlsx`)** — include:
+  - `发布时间`
+  - `交通策略类型`
+  - optional descriptors such as `策略名称`, `策略内容`
+- Select the global filters (region, date window, strategy filter) and click `应用数据与筛选`.
+- Uploaded files are cached. Upload a new file or press “Rerun” to refresh after making edits.
+- Sample datasets for rapid smoke testing live in `sample/事故/*.xlsx` (accidents) and `sample/交通策略/*.xlsx` (strategies); copy them before making modifications.
+
+> Tip: `services/io.py` performs validation; rows missing key columns are dropped with a warning in the Streamlit log.
+
+## Navigate the workspace
+
+- **🏠 总览 (Overview)** — KPI cards, time-series plot, filtered table, and download buttons for HTML (`overview_series.html`), CSV (`filtered_view.csv`), and run metadata (`run_metadata.json`).
+- **📈 预测模型 (Forecast)** — choose an intervention date and horizon, compare ARIMA / KNN / GLM / SVR forecasts, and export `arima_forecast.csv`（提交后结果会在同一数据集下保留，便于调整其他控件）。
+- **📊 模型评估 (Model evaluation)** — run rolling-window backtests, inspect RMSE/MAE/MAPE, and download `model_evaluation.csv`.
+- **⚠️ 异常检测 (Anomaly detection)** — isolation forest marks outliers on the accident series; tweak contamination via the main page controls.
+- **📝 策略评估 (Strategy evaluation)** — Aggregates metrics per strategy type, recommends the best option, writes `strategy_evaluation_results.csv`, and updates `recommendation.txt`.
+- **⚖️ 策略对比 (Strategy comparison)** — side-by-side metrics for selected strategies, useful for “what worked best last month” reviews.
+- **🧪 情景模拟 (Scenario simulation)** — apply intervention models (persistent/decay, lagged effects) to test potential roll-outs.
+- **🔍 AI 分析** — 默认示例 API Key/Base URL 已预填，可直接体验；如需切换自有凭据，可在侧边栏更新后生成洞察（运行时读取，不会写入磁盘）。
+- **📍 事故热点 (Hotspot)** — reuse the already uploaded accident data to identify high-risk intersections and produce targeted mitigation ideas; no separate hotspot upload is required.
+
+Each tab remembers the active filters from the sidebar so results stay consistent.
+
+## Downloaded artefacts
+
+Generated files are saved to the project root unless you override paths in the code:
+
+- `overview_series.html`
+- `filtered_view.csv`
+- `run_metadata.json`
+- `arima_forecast.csv`
+- `model_evaluation.csv`
+- `strategy_evaluation_results.csv`
+- `recommendation.txt`
+
+After a session, review and archive these outputs under `docs/` or a dated folder as needed.
+
+## Operational tips
+
+- **Auto refresh**: enable from the sidebar (requires `streamlit-autorefresh`). Set the interval in seconds for live dashboards.
+- **Logging**: set `LOG_LEVEL=DEBUG` before launch to see detailed diagnostics in the terminal and Streamlit log.
+- **Reset filters**: choose “全市” and the full date span, then re-run the sidebar form.
+- **Common warnings**:
+  - *“数据中没有检测到策略”*: verify the strategy Excel file and column names.
+  - *ARIMA failures*: shorten the horizon or ensure at least 10 historical data points before the intervention date.
+  - *Hotspot data issues*: ensure the accident workbook includes `事故时间`, `所在街道`, `事故类型`, and `事故具体地点` so intersections can be resolved.
+
+Need deeper integration or batch automation? Extract the core functions from `services/` and orchestrate them in a notebook or scheduled job.

environment.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+name: trafficsa
+channels:
+  - conda-forge
+  - defaults
+dependencies:
+  - python=3.12
+  - pip
+  - streamlit>=1.20
+  - pandas>=1.3
+  - numpy>=1.21
+  - matplotlib>=3.4
+  - plotly>=5
+  - scikit-learn>=1.0
+  - statsmodels>=0.13
+  - scipy>=1.7
+  - pyarrow>=7
+  - python-dateutil>=2.8.2
+  - pytz>=2021.3
+  - openpyxl>=3.0.9
+  - xlrd>=2.0.1
+  - cryptography>=3.4.7
+  - requests
+  - pip:
+      - streamlit-autorefresh>=0.1.5
+      - openai>=2.0.0
+      - jieba>=0.42.1

readme.md

@@ -8,6 +8,8 @@
 - 使用 ARIMA、KNN、GLM、SVR 等模型预测事故趋势
 - 检测异常事故点
 - 评估交通策略效果并提供推荐
+- 识别事故热点路口并生成风险分级与整治建议
+- 支持 AI 分析生成自然语言洞察
 
 ## 安装步骤
 
@@ -17,7 +19,7 @@
 - Git
 - 可选：Docker（用于容器化部署）
 
-### 安装
+### 安装（本地环境）
 
 1. 克隆仓库：
 
@@ -29,7 +31,7 @@ cd TrafficSafeAnalyzer
 2. 创建虚拟环境（推荐）：
 
 ```bash
-conda create -n trafficsa python=3.12 -y
+conda create -n trafficsa python=3.8 -y
 conda activate trafficsa
 pip install -r requirements.txt
 streamlit run app.py
@@ -61,6 +63,28 @@ streamlit run app.py
       streamlit run app.py
       ```
 
+### 使用 Docker 运行
+
+项目根目录已经包含 `Dockerfile`，无需额外配置即可容器化运行：
+
+```bash
+# 构建镜像
+docker build -t trafficsafeanalyzer .
+
+# 以临时容器方式启动
+docker run --rm -p 8501:8501 trafficsafeanalyzer
+```
+
+运行后访问 `http://localhost:8501` 即可。若需加载主机上的数据文件，可通过挂载方式注入：
+
+```bash
+docker run --rm -p 8501:8501 \
+  -v "$(pwd)/sample:/app/sample" \
+  trafficsafeanalyzer
+```
+
+容器内默认启用了示例 AI 凭据与 Streamlit Headless 模式，如需调整可在 `docker run` 时追加环境变量（例如 `-e STREAMLIT_SERVER_PORT=8502`）。
+
 ## 依赖项
 
 列于 `requirements.txt`：
@@ -85,10 +109,20 @@ openai>=2.0.0
 
 ## 配置参数
 
-- **数据文件**：上传事故数据（`accident_file`）和策略数据（`strategy_file`），格式为 Excel
+- **数据文件**：上传事故数据（`accident_file`）和策略数据（`strategy_file`），格式为 Excel；事故热点分析会直接复用事故数据，无需额外上传。
 - **环境变量**（可选）：
   - `LOG_LEVEL=DEBUG`：启用详细日志
   - 示例：`export LOG_LEVEL=DEBUG`（Linux/macOS）或 `set LOG_LEVEL=DEBUG`（Windows）
+- **AI 分析凭据**：应用内已预填可用的示例 API Key 与 Base URL，可直接体验；如需使用自有服务，可在侧边栏替换后即时生效。
+
+## 示例数据
+
+`sample/` 目录提供了脱敏示例数据，便于快速体验：
+
+- `sample/事故/*.xlsx`：按年份划分的事故记录
+- `sample/交通策略/*.xlsx`：策略发布记录
+
+使用前建议复制到临时位置再进行编辑。
 
 ## 输入输出格式
 
@@ -118,8 +152,11 @@ streamlit run app.py
 **问题**：数据加载失败  
 **解决**：确保 Excel 文件格式正确，检查列名是否匹配
 
-**问题**：`NameError: name 'strategy_metrics' is not defined`  
-**解决**：确保 `strategy_metrics` 函数定义在 `app.py` 中，且位于 `run_streamlit_app` 函数内
+**问题**：预测模型页面点击后图表未显示  
+**解决**：确认干预日期之前至少有 10 条历史记录，或缩短预测天数重新提交
+
+**问题**：热点分析提示“请上传事故数据”  
+**解决**：侧边栏上传事故数据后点击“应用数据与筛选”，热点模块会复用相同数据集
 
 ## 日志分析
 

requirements.txt

@@ -27,5 +27,8 @@ cryptography>=3.4.7
 # OpenAI
 openai
 
+# jieba for Chinese text segmentation
+jieba
+
 # Note: hashlib and json are part of Python standard library
 # Note: os and datetime are part of Python standard library

run_metadata.json

@@ -1,11 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "region": "全市",
-  "date_range": [
-    "2022-01-01",
-    "2022-12-31"
-  ],
-  "strategy_filter": [],
-  "rows": 365,
-  "min_date": "2022-01-01",
-  "max_date": "2022-12-31"
-}

services/forecast.py

@@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import warnings
+import pandas as pd
+import numpy as np
+import streamlit as st
+import statsmodels.api as sm
+from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
+from statsmodels.tools.sm_exceptions import ValueWarning
+from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsRegressor
+from sklearn.svm import SVR
+from sklearn.pipeline import make_pipeline
+from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
+
+from config.settings import ARIMA_P, ARIMA_D, ARIMA_Q, MAX_PRE_DAYS
+
+
+@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
+def evaluate_arima_model(series, arima_order):
+    try:
+        model = ARIMA(series, order=arima_order)
+        model_fit = model.fit()
+        return model_fit.aic
+    except Exception:
+        return float("inf")
+
+
+@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
+def arima_forecast_with_grid_search(accident_series: pd.Series,
+                                    start_date: pd.Timestamp,
+                                    horizon: int = 30,
+                                    p_values: list = tuple(ARIMA_P),
+                                    d_values: list = tuple(ARIMA_D),
+                                    q_values: list = tuple(ARIMA_Q)) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    series = accident_series.asfreq('D').fillna(0)
+    start_date = pd.to_datetime(start_date)
+
+    warnings.filterwarnings("ignore", category=ValueWarning)
+    best_score, best_cfg = float("inf"), None
+    for p in p_values:
+        for d in d_values:
+            for q in q_values:
+                order = (p, d, q)
+                try:
+                    aic = evaluate_arima_model(series, order)
+                    if aic < best_score:
+                        best_score, best_cfg = aic, order
+                except Exception:
+                    continue
+
+    model = ARIMA(series, order=best_cfg)
+    fit = model.fit()
+    forecast_index = pd.date_range(start=start_date, periods=horizon, freq='D')
+    res = fit.get_forecast(steps=horizon)
+    df = res.summary_frame()
+    df.index = forecast_index
+    df.index.name = 'date'
+    df.rename(columns={'mean': 'forecast'}, inplace=True)
+    return df
+
+
+def knn_forecast_counterfactual(accident_series: pd.Series,
+                                intervention_date: pd.Timestamp,
+                                lookback: int = 14,
+                                horizon: int = 30):
+    series = accident_series.asfreq('D').fillna(0)
+    intervention_date = pd.to_datetime(intervention_date).normalize()
+
+    df = pd.DataFrame({'y': series})
+    for i in range(1, lookback + 1):
+        df[f'lag_{i}'] = df['y'].shift(i)
+
+    train = df.loc[:intervention_date - pd.Timedelta(days=1)].dropna()
+    if len(train) < 5:
+        return None, None
+    X_train = train.filter(like='lag_').values
+    y_train = train['y'].values
+    knn = KNeighborsRegressor(n_neighbors=5)
+    knn.fit(X_train, y_train)
+
+    history = df.loc[:intervention_date - pd.Timedelta(days=1), 'y'].tolist()
+    preds = []
+    for _ in range(horizon):
+        if len(history) < lookback:
+            return None, None
+        x = np.array(history[-lookback:][::-1]).reshape(1, -1)
+        pred = knn.predict(x)[0]
+        preds.append(pred)
+        history.append(pred)
+
+    pred_index = pd.date_range(intervention_date, periods=horizon, freq='D')
+    return pd.Series(preds, index=pred_index, name='knn_pred'), None
+
+
+def fit_and_extrapolate(series: pd.Series,
+                        intervention_date: pd.Timestamp,
+                        days: int = 30,
+                        max_pre_days: int = MAX_PRE_DAYS):
+    series = series.asfreq('D').fillna(0)
+    series.index = pd.to_datetime(series.index).tz_localize(None).normalize()
+    intervention_date = pd.to_datetime(intervention_date).tz_localize(None).normalize()
+
+    pre = series.loc[:intervention_date - pd.Timedelta(days=1)]
+    if len(pre) > max_pre_days:
+        pre = pre.iloc[-max_pre_days:]
+    if len(pre) < 3:
+        return None, None, None
+
+    x_pre = np.arange(len(pre))
+    x_future = np.arange(len(pre), len(pre) + days)
+
+    try:
+        X_pre_glm = sm.add_constant(np.column_stack([x_pre, x_pre**2]))
+        glm = sm.GLM(pre.values, X_pre_glm, family=sm.families.Poisson())
+        glm_res = glm.fit()
+        X_future_glm = sm.add_constant(np.column_stack([x_future, x_future**2]))
+        glm_pred = glm_res.predict(X_future_glm)
+    except Exception:
+        glm_pred = None
+
+    try:
+        svr = make_pipeline(StandardScaler(), SVR(kernel='rbf', C=10, gamma=0.1))
+        svr.fit(x_pre.reshape(-1, 1), pre.values)
+        svr_pred = svr.predict(x_future.reshape(-1, 1))
+    except Exception:
+        svr_pred = None
+
+    post_index = pd.date_range(intervention_date, periods=days, freq='D')
+
+    glm_pred = pd.Series(glm_pred, index=post_index, name='glm_pred') if glm_pred is not None else None
+    svr_pred = pd.Series(svr_pred, index=post_index, name='svr_pred') if svr_pred is not None else None
+
+    post = series.reindex(post_index)
+    residuals = None
+    if svr_pred is not None:
+        residuals = pd.Series(post.values - svr_pred[:len(post)], index=post_index, name='residual')
+
+    return glm_pred, svr_pred, residuals
+

services/hotspot.py

@@ -0,0 +1,239 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import datetime
+from typing import Iterable, Optional
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+
+LOCATION_KEYWORDS: tuple[str, ...] = (
+    "路",
+    "道",
+    "街",
+    "巷",
+    "路口",
+    "交叉口",
+    "大道",
+    "公路",
+    "口",
+)
+AREA_KEYWORDS: tuple[str, ...] = (
+    "新城",
+    "临城",
+    "千岛",
+    "翁山",
+    "海天",
+    "海宇",
+    "定沈",
+    "滨海",
+    "港岛",
+    "体育",
+    "长升",
+    "金岛",
+    "桃湾",
+)
+
+LOCATION_MAPPING: dict[str, str] = {
+    "新城千岛路": "千岛路",
+    "千岛路海天大道": "千岛路海天大道口",
+    "海天大道千岛路": "千岛路海天大道口",
+    "新城翁山路": "翁山路",
+    "翁山路金岛路": "翁山路金岛路口",
+    "海天大道临长路": "海天大道临长路口",
+    "定沈路卫生医院门口": "定沈路医院段",
+    "翁山路海城路西口": "翁山路海城路口",
+    "海宇道路口": "海宇道",
+    "海天大道路口": "海天大道",
+    "定沈路交叉路口": "定沈路",
+    "千岛路路口": "千岛路",
+    "体育路路口": "体育路",
+    "金岛路路口": "金岛路",
+}
+
+SEVERITY_MAP: dict[str, int] = {"财损": 1, "伤人": 2, "亡人": 4}
+
+
+def _extract_road_info(location: str | float | None) -> str:
+    if pd.isna(location):
+        return "未知路段"
+    text = str(location)
+    for keyword in LOCATION_KEYWORDS + AREA_KEYWORDS:
+        if keyword in text:
+            words = text.replace("，", " ").replace(",", " ").split()
+            for word in words:
+                if keyword in word:
+                    return word
+            return text
+    return text[:20] if len(text) > 20 else text
+
+
+def prepare_hotspot_dataset(accident_records: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    df = accident_records.copy()
+    required_defaults: dict[str, str] = {
+        "道路类型": "未知道路类型",
+        "路口路段类型": "未知路段",
+        "事故具体地点": "未知路段",
+        "事故类型": "财损",
+        "所在街道": "未知街道",
+    }
+    for column, default_value in required_defaults.items():
+        if column not in df.columns:
+            df[column] = default_value
+        else:
+            df[column] = df[column].fillna(default_value)
+
+    if "severity" not in df.columns:
+        df["severity"] = df["事故类型"].map(SEVERITY_MAP).fillna(1).astype(int)
+
+    df["事故时间"] = pd.to_datetime(df["事故时间"], errors="coerce")
+    df = df.dropna(subset=["事故时间"]).sort_values("事故时间").reset_index(drop=True)
+    df["standardized_location"] = (
+        df["事故具体地点"].apply(_extract_road_info).replace(LOCATION_MAPPING)
+    )
+    return df
+
+
+def analyze_hotspot_frequency(df: pd.DataFrame, time_window: str = "7D") -> pd.DataFrame:
+    recent_cutoff = df["事故时间"].max() - pd.Timedelta(time_window)
+
+    overall_stats = df.groupby("standardized_location").agg(
+        accident_count=("事故时间", "count"),
+        last_accident=("事故时间", "max"),
+        main_accident_type=("事故类型", _mode_fallback),
+        main_road_type=("道路类型", _mode_fallback),
+        main_intersection_type=("路口路段类型", _mode_fallback),
+        total_severity=("severity", "sum"),
+    )
+
+    recent_stats = (
+        df[df["事故时间"] >= recent_cutoff]
+        .groupby("standardized_location")
+        .agg(
+            recent_count=("事故时间", "count"),
+            recent_accident_type=("事故类型", _mode_fallback),
+            recent_severity=("severity", "sum"),
+        )
+    )
+
+    result = (
+        overall_stats.merge(recent_stats, left_index=True, right_index=True, how="left")
+        .fillna({"recent_count": 0, "recent_severity": 0})
+        .fillna("")
+    )
+    result["recent_count"] = result["recent_count"].astype(int)
+    result["trend_ratio"] = result["recent_count"] / result["accident_count"]
+    result["days_since_last"] = (
+        df["事故时间"].max() - result["last_accident"]
+    ).dt.days.astype(int)
+    result["avg_severity"] = result["total_severity"] / result["accident_count"]
+    return result.sort_values(["recent_count", "accident_count"], ascending=False)
+
+
+def calculate_hotspot_risk_score(hotspot_df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    df = hotspot_df.copy()
+    if df.empty:
+        return df
+
+    df["frequency_score"] = (df["accident_count"] / df["accident_count"].max() * 40).clip(
+        0, 40
+    )
+    df["trend_score"] = (df["trend_ratio"] * 30).clip(0, 30)
+    severity_map = {"财损": 5, "伤人": 15, "亡人": 20}
+    df["severity_score"] = df["main_accident_type"].map(severity_map).fillna(5)
+    df["urgency_score"] = ((30 - df["days_since_last"]) / 30 * 10).clip(0, 10)
+    df["risk_score"] = (
+        df["frequency_score"]
+        + df["trend_score"]
+        + df["severity_score"]
+        + df["urgency_score"]
+    )
+    conditions = [
+        df["risk_score"] >= 70,
+        df["risk_score"] >= 50,
+        df["risk_score"] >= 30,
+    ]
+    choices = ["高风险", "中风险", "低风险"]
+    df["risk_level"] = np.select(conditions, choices, default="一般风险")
+    return df.sort_values("risk_score", ascending=False)
+
+
+def generate_hotspot_strategies(
+    hotspot_df: pd.DataFrame, time_period: str = "本周"
+) -> list[dict[str, str | float]]:
+    strategies: list[dict[str, str | float]] = []
+    for location_name, location_data in hotspot_df.iterrows():
+        accident_count = float(location_data["accident_count"])
+        recent_count = float(location_data.get("recent_count", 0))
+        accident_type = str(location_data.get("main_accident_type", "财损"))
+        intersection_type = str(location_data.get("main_intersection_type", "普通路段"))
+        trend_ratio = float(location_data.get("trend_ratio", 0))
+        risk_level = str(location_data.get("risk_level", "一般风险"))
+
+        base_info = f"{time_period}对【{location_name}】"
+        data_support = (
+            f"（近期{int(recent_count)}起，累计{int(accident_count)}起，{accident_type}为主）"
+        )
+
+        strategy_parts: list[str] = []
+        if "信号灯" in intersection_type:
+            if accident_type == "财损":
+                strategy_parts.extend(["加强闯红灯查处", "优化信号配时", "整治不按规定让行"])
+            else:
+                strategy_parts.extend(["完善人行过街设施", "加强非机动车管理", "设置警示标志"])
+        elif "普通路段" in intersection_type:
+            strategy_parts.extend(["加强巡逻管控", "整治违法停车", "设置限速标志"])
+        else:
+            strategy_parts.extend(["分析事故成因", "制定综合整治方案"])
+
+        if risk_level == "高风险":
+            strategy_parts.extend(["列为重点整治路段", "开展专项整治行动"])
+        elif risk_level == "中风险":
+            strategy_parts.append("加强日常监管")
+
+        if trend_ratio > 0.4:
+            strategy_parts.append("近期重点监控")
+
+        strategy_text = (
+            base_info + "，" + "，".join(strategy_parts) + data_support
+            if strategy_parts
+            else base_info + "加强交通安全管理" + data_support
+        )
+
+        strategies.append(
+            {
+                "location": location_name,
+                "strategy": strategy_text,
+                "risk_level": risk_level,
+                "accident_count": accident_count,
+                "recent_count": recent_count,
+            }
+        )
+    return strategies
+
+
+def serialise_datetime_columns(df: pd.DataFrame, columns: Optional[Iterable[str]] = None) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    result = df.copy()
+    if columns is None:
+        columns = result.columns
+    for column in columns:
+        if column not in result.columns:
+            continue
+        series = result[column]
+        if pd.api.types.is_datetime64_any_dtype(series):
+            result[column] = series.dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
+        else:
+            has_timestamp = series.map(lambda value: isinstance(value, (datetime, pd.Timestamp))).any()
+            if has_timestamp:
+                result[column] = series.map(
+                    lambda value: value.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
+                    if isinstance(value, (datetime, pd.Timestamp))
+                    else value
+                )
+    return result
+
+
+def _mode_fallback(series: pd.Series) -> str:
+    if series.empty:
+        return ""
+    mode = series.mode()
+    return str(mode.iloc[0]) if not mode.empty else str(series.iloc[0])

services/io.py

@@ -0,0 +1,270 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import re
+from typing import Iterable, Mapping
+
+import pandas as pd
+import streamlit as st
+
+COLUMN_ALIASES: Mapping[str, str] = {
+    '事故发生时间': '事故时间',
+    '发生时间': '事故时间',
+    '时间': '事故时间',
+    '街道': '所在街道',
+    '所属街道': '所在街道',
+    '所属辖区': '所在区县',
+    '辖区街道': '所在街道',
+    '事故发生地点': '事故地点',
+    '事故地址': '事故地点',
+    '事故位置': '事故地点',
+    '事故具体地址': '事故具体地点',
+    '案件类型': '事故类型',
+    '事故类别': '事故类型',
+    '事故性质': '事故类型',
+    '事故类型1': '事故类型',
+}
+
+ACCIDENT_TYPE_NORMALIZATION: Mapping[str, str] = {
+    '财产损失': '财损',
+    '财产损失事故': '财损',
+    '一般程序': '伤人',
+    '一般程序事故': '伤人',
+    '伤人事故': '伤人',
+    '造成人员受伤': '伤人',
+    '造成人员死亡': '亡人',
+    '死亡事故': '亡人',
+    '亡人事故': '亡人',
+    '亡人死亡': '亡人',
+    '号': '财损',
+}
+
+REGION_FROM_LOCATION_PATTERN = re.compile(r'([一-龥]{2,8}(街道|新区|开发区|镇|区))')
+
+REGION_NORMALIZATION: Mapping[str, str] = {
+    '临城中队': '临城街道',
+    '临城新区': '临城街道',
+    '临城': '临城街道',
+    '新城': '临城街道',
+    '千岛中队': '千岛街道',
+    '千岛新区': '千岛街道',
+    '千岛': '千岛街道',
+    '沈家门中队': '沈家门街道',
+    '沈家门': '沈家门街道',
+    '普陀城区': '沈家门街道',
+    '普陀': '沈家门街道',
+}
+
+
+def _clean_text(series: pd.Series) -> pd.Series:
+    """Strip whitespace and normalise obvious null placeholders."""
+    cleaned = series.astype(str).str.strip()
+    null_tokens = {'', 'nan', 'NaN', 'None', 'NULL', '<NA>', '无', '—'}
+    return cleaned.mask(cleaned.isin(null_tokens))
+
+
+def _maybe_seek_start(file_obj) -> None:
+    if hasattr(file_obj, "seek"):
+        try:
+            file_obj.seek(0)
+        except Exception:  # pragma: no cover - guard against non file-likes
+            pass
+
+
+def _prepare_sheet(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """Standardise a single sheet from the事故数据 workbook."""
+    if df is None or df.empty:
+        return pd.DataFrame()
+
+    sheet = df.copy()
+    # Normalise column names first
+    sheet.columns = [str(col).strip() for col in sheet.columns]
+    # If 栏目 still not recognised, attempt to locate header row inside the data
+    if '事故时间' not in sheet.columns and '事故发生时间' not in sheet.columns:
+        header_row = None
+        for idx, row in sheet.iterrows():
+            values = [str(cell).strip() for cell in row.tolist()]
+            if '事故时间' in values or '事故发生时间' in values or '报警时间' in values:
+                header_row = idx
+                break
+        if header_row is not None:
+            sheet.columns = [str(x).strip() for x in sheet.iloc[header_row].tolist()]
+            sheet = sheet.iloc[header_row + 1 :].reset_index(drop=True)
+            sheet.columns = [str(col).strip() for col in sheet.columns]
+
+    # Apply aliases after potential header relocation
+    sheet = sheet.rename(columns={src: dst for src, dst in COLUMN_ALIASES.items() if src in sheet.columns})
+
+    return sheet
+
+
+def _coalesce_columns(df: pd.DataFrame, columns: Iterable[str]) -> pd.Series:
+    result = pd.Series(pd.NA, index=df.index, dtype="object")
+    for col in columns:
+        if col in df.columns:
+            candidate = _clean_text(df[col])
+            result = result.fillna(candidate)
+    return result
+
+
+def _infer_region_from_location(location: str) -> str | None:
+    if pd.isna(location):
+        return None
+    text = str(location).strip()
+    if not text:
+        return None
+    match = REGION_FROM_LOCATION_PATTERN.search(text)
+    if match:
+        return match.group(1)
+    return None
+
+
+def _normalise_region_series(series: pd.Series) -> pd.Series:
+    return series.map(lambda val: REGION_NORMALIZATION.get(val, val) if pd.notna(val) else val)
+
+
+def load_accident_records(accident_file, *, require_location: bool = False) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """
+    Load accident records from the updated Excel template.
+
+    The function supports workbooks with a single sheet (e.g. sample/事故处理/事故2021-2022.xlsx)
+    as well as legacy multi-sheet formats where the header row might sit within the data.
+    """
+    _maybe_seek_start(accident_file)
+    sheets = pd.read_excel(accident_file, sheet_name=None)
+    if isinstance(sheets, dict):
+        frames = [frame for frame in ( _prepare_sheet(df) for df in sheets.values() ) if not frame.empty]
+    else:  # pragma: no cover - pandas only returns dict when sheet_name=None, but keep guard
+        frames = [_prepare_sheet(sheets)]
+
+    if not frames:
+        raise ValueError("未在上传的事故数据中检测到有效的事故记录，请确认文件内容。")
+
+    accident_df = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True)
+
+    # Normalise columns of interest
+    if '事故时间' not in accident_df.columns and '报警时间' in accident_df.columns:
+        accident_df['事故时间'] = accident_df['报警时间']
+
+    if '事故时间' not in accident_df.columns:
+        raise ValueError("事故数据缺少“事故时间”字段，请确认模板是否为最新版本。")
+
+    accident_df['事故时间'] = pd.to_datetime(accident_df['事故时间'], errors='coerce')
+
+    # Location harmonisation (used for both region inference and hotspot analysis)
+    location_columns_available = [col for col in ['事故具体地点', '事故地点'] if col in accident_df.columns]
+    location_series = _coalesce_columns(accident_df, ['事故具体地点', '事故地点'])
+
+    # Region handling
+    region = _coalesce_columns(accident_df, ['所在街道', '所属街道', '所在区县', '辖区中队'])
+    # Infer region from location fields when still missing
+    if region.isna().any():
+        inferred = location_series.map(_infer_region_from_location)
+        region = region.fillna(inferred)
+        region = region.fillna(_clean_text(location_series))
+
+    region_clean = _clean_text(region)
+    accident_df['所在街道'] = _normalise_region_series(region_clean)
+
+    # Accident type normalisation
+    accident_type = _coalesce_columns(accident_df, ['事故类型', '事故类别', '事故性质'])
+    accident_type = accident_type.replace(ACCIDENT_TYPE_NORMALIZATION)
+    accident_type = _clean_text(accident_type).replace(ACCIDENT_TYPE_NORMALIZATION)
+    accident_df['事故类型'] = accident_type.fillna('财损')
+
+    # Location column harmonisation
+    if require_location and not location_columns_available and location_series.isna().all():
+        raise ValueError("事故数据缺少“事故具体地点”字段，请确认模板是否与 sample/事故处理 中示例一致。")
+    accident_df['事故具体地点'] = _clean_text(location_series)
+
+    # Drop records with missing core fields
+    subset = ['事故时间', '所在街道', '事故类型']
+    if require_location:
+        subset.append('事故具体地点')
+    accident_df = accident_df.dropna(subset=subset)
+
+    # Severity score
+    severity_map = {'财损': 1, '伤人': 2, '亡人': 4}
+    accident_df['severity'] = accident_df['事故类型'].map(severity_map).fillna(1).astype(int)
+
+    accident_df = accident_df.sort_values('事故时间').reset_index(drop=True)
+
+    return accident_df
+
+
+@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
+def load_and_clean_data(accident_file, strategy_file):
+    accident_records = load_accident_records(accident_file)
+
+    accident_data = accident_records.rename(
+        columns={'事故时间': 'date_time', '所在街道': 'region', '事故类型': 'category'}
+    )
+
+    _maybe_seek_start(strategy_file)
+    strategy_df = pd.read_excel(strategy_file)
+    strategy_df = strategy_df.rename(columns=lambda col: str(col).strip())
+    if '发布时间' not in strategy_df.columns:
+        raise ValueError("策略数据缺少“发布时间”字段，请确认文件格式。")
+
+    strategy_df['发布时间'] = pd.to_datetime(strategy_df['发布时间'], errors='coerce')
+    if '交通策略类型' not in strategy_df.columns:
+        raise ValueError("策略数据缺少“交通策略类型”字段，请确认文件格式。")
+
+    strategy_df['交通策略类型'] = _clean_text(strategy_df['交通策略类型'])
+    strategy_df = strategy_df.dropna(subset=['发布时间', '交通策略类型'])
+
+    accident_data = accident_data[['date_time', 'region', 'category', 'severity']]
+    strategy_df = strategy_df[['发布时间', '交通策略类型']].rename(
+        columns={'发布时间': 'date_time', '交通策略类型': 'strategy_type'}
+    )
+
+    return accident_data, strategy_df
+
+
+@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
+def aggregate_daily_data(accident_data: pd.DataFrame, strategy_data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    accident_data = accident_data.copy()
+    strategy_data = strategy_data.copy()
+
+    accident_data['date'] = accident_data['date_time'].dt.date
+    daily_accidents = accident_data.groupby('date').agg(
+        accident_count=('date_time', 'count'),
+        severity=('severity', 'sum')
+    )
+    daily_accidents.index = pd.to_datetime(daily_accidents.index)
+
+    strategy_data['date'] = strategy_data['date_time'].dt.date
+    daily_strategies = strategy_data.groupby('date')['strategy_type'].apply(list)
+    daily_strategies.index = pd.to_datetime(daily_strategies.index)
+
+    combined = daily_accidents.join(daily_strategies, how='left')
+    combined['strategy_type'] = combined['strategy_type'].apply(lambda x: x if isinstance(x, list) else [])
+    combined = combined.asfreq('D')
+    combined[['accident_count', 'severity']] = combined[['accident_count', 'severity']].fillna(0)
+    combined['strategy_type'] = combined['strategy_type'].apply(lambda x: x if isinstance(x, list) else [])
+    return combined
+
+
+@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
+def aggregate_daily_data_by_region(accident_data: pd.DataFrame, strategy_data: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    df = accident_data.copy()
+    df['date'] = df['date_time'].dt.date
+    g = df.groupby(['region', 'date']).agg(
+        accident_count=('date_time', 'count'),
+        severity=('severity', 'sum')
+    )
+    g.index = g.index.set_levels([g.index.levels[0], pd.to_datetime(g.index.levels[1])])
+    g = g.sort_index()
+
+    s = strategy_data.copy()
+    s['date'] = s['date_time'].dt.date
+    daily_strategies = s.groupby('date')['strategy_type'].apply(list)
+    daily_strategies.index = pd.to_datetime(daily_strategies.index)
+
+    regions = g.index.get_level_values(0).unique()
+    dates = pd.date_range(g.index.get_level_values(1).min(), g.index.get_level_values(1).max(), freq='D')
+    full_index = pd.MultiIndex.from_product([regions, dates], names=['region', 'date'])
+    g = g.reindex(full_index).fillna(0)
+
+    strat_map = daily_strategies.to_dict()
+    g = g.assign(strategy_type=[strat_map.get(d, []) for d in g.index.get_level_values('date')])
+    return g

services/metrics.py

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error, mean_squared_error
+from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
+import streamlit as st
+
+
+@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
+def evaluate_models(series: pd.Series,
+                    horizon: int = 30,
+                    lookback: int = 14,
+                    p_values: range = range(0, 4),
+                    d_values: range = range(0, 2),
+                    q_values: range = range(0, 4)) -> pd.DataFrame:
+    """
+    留出法（最后 horizon 天作为验证集）比较 ARIMA / KNN / GLM / SVR，
+    输出 MAE・RMSE・MAPE，并按 RMSE 升序排序。
+    """
+    series = series.asfreq('D').fillna(0)
+    if len(series) <= horizon + 10:
+        raise ValueError("序列太短，无法留出 %d 天进行评估。" % horizon)
+
+    train, test = series.iloc[:-horizon], series.iloc[-horizon:]
+
+    def _to_series_like(pred, a_index):
+        if isinstance(pred, pd.Series):
+            return pred.reindex(a_index)
+        return pd.Series(pred, index=a_index)
+
+    def _metrics(a: pd.Series, p) -> dict:
+        p = _to_series_like(p, a.index).astype(float)
+        a = a.astype(float)
+        mae = mean_absolute_error(a, p)
+        try:
+            rmse = mean_squared_error(a, p, squared=False)
+        except TypeError:
+            rmse = mean_squared_error(a, p) ** 0.5
+        mape = np.nanmean(np.abs((a - p) / np.where(a == 0, np.nan, a))) * 100
+        return {"MAE": mae, "RMSE": rmse, "MAPE": mape}
+
+    results = {}
+
+    best_aic, best_order = float('inf'), (1, 0, 1)
+    for p in p_values:
+        for d in d_values:
+            for q in q_values:
+                try:
+                    aic = ARIMA(train, order=(p, d, q)).fit().aic
+                    if aic < best_aic:
+                        best_aic, best_order = aic, (p, d, q)
+                except Exception:
+                    continue
+    arima_train = train.asfreq('D').fillna(0)
+    arima_pred = ARIMA(arima_train, order=best_order).fit().forecast(steps=horizon)
+    results['ARIMA'] = _metrics(test, arima_pred)
+
+    # Import local utilities to avoid circular dependencies
+    from services.forecast import knn_forecast_counterfactual, fit_and_extrapolate
+
+    try:
+        knn_pred, _ = knn_forecast_counterfactual(series,
+                                                  train.index[-1] + pd.Timedelta(days=1),
+                                                  lookback=lookback,
+                                                  horizon=horizon)
+        if knn_pred is not None:
+            results['KNN'] = _metrics(test, knn_pred)
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+
+    try:
+        glm_pred, svr_pred, _ = fit_and_extrapolate(series,
+                                                    train.index[-1] + pd.Timedelta(days=1),
+                                                    days=horizon)
+        if glm_pred is not None:
+            results['GLM'] = _metrics(test, glm_pred)
+        if svr_pred is not None:
+            results['SVR'] = _metrics(test, svr_pred)
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+
+    return (pd.DataFrame(results)
+            .T.sort_values('RMSE')
+            .round(3))
+

services/strategy.py

@@ -0,0 +1,157 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import pandas as pd
+import streamlit as st
+
+from services.forecast import fit_and_extrapolate, arima_forecast_with_grid_search
+from config.settings import MIN_PRE_DAYS, MAX_PRE_DAYS
+
+
+def evaluate_strategy_effectiveness(actual_series: pd.Series,
+                                    counterfactual_series: pd.Series,
+                                    severity_series: pd.Series,
+                                    strategy_date: pd.Timestamp,
+                                    window: int = 30):
+    strategy_date = pd.to_datetime(strategy_date)
+    window_end = strategy_date + pd.Timedelta(days=window - 1)
+    pre_sev = severity_series.loc[strategy_date - pd.Timedelta(days=window):strategy_date - pd.Timedelta(days=1)].sum()
+    post_sev = severity_series.loc[strategy_date:window_end].sum()
+    actual_post = actual_series.loc[strategy_date:window_end]
+    counter_post = counterfactual_series.loc[strategy_date:window_end].reindex(actual_post.index)
+    window_len = len(actual_post)
+    if window_len == 0:
+        return False, False, (0.0, 0.0), '三级'
+    effective_days = (actual_post < counter_post).sum()
+    count_effective = effective_days >= (window_len / 2)
+    severity_effective = post_sev < pre_sev
+    cf_sum = counter_post.sum()
+    F1 = (cf_sum - actual_post.sum()) / cf_sum if cf_sum > 0 else 0.0
+    F2 = (pre_sev - post_sev) / pre_sev if pre_sev > 0 else 0.0
+    if F1 > 0.5 and F2 > 0.5:
+        safety_state = '一级'
+    elif F1 > 0.3:
+        safety_state = '二级'
+    else:
+        safety_state = '三级'
+    return count_effective, severity_effective, (F1, F2), safety_state
+
+
+@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
+def generate_output_and_recommendations(combined_data: pd.DataFrame,
+                                        strategy_types: list,
+                                        region: str = '全市',
+                                        horizon: int = 30):
+    results = {}
+    combined_data = combined_data.copy().asfreq('D')
+    combined_data[['accident_count','severity']] = combined_data[['accident_count','severity']].fillna(0)
+    combined_data['strategy_type'] = combined_data['strategy_type'].apply(lambda x: x if isinstance(x, list) else [])
+
+    acc_full = combined_data['accident_count']
+    sev_full = combined_data['severity']
+
+    max_fit_days = max(horizon + 60, MAX_PRE_DAYS)
+
+    for strategy in strategy_types:
+        has_strategy = combined_data['strategy_type'].apply(lambda x: strategy in x)
+        if not has_strategy.any():
+            continue
+        candidate_dates = has_strategy[has_strategy].index
+        intervention_date = None
+        fit_start_dt = None
+        for dt in candidate_dates:
+            fit_start_dt = max(acc_full.index.min(), dt - pd.Timedelta(days=max_fit_days))
+            pre_hist = acc_full.loc[fit_start_dt:dt - pd.Timedelta(days=1)]
+            if len(pre_hist) >= MIN_PRE_DAYS:
+                intervention_date = dt
+                break
+        if intervention_date is None:
+            intervention_date = candidate_dates[0]
+            fit_start_dt = max(acc_full.index.min(), intervention_date - pd.Timedelta(days=max_fit_days))
+
+        acc = acc_full.loc[fit_start_dt:]
+        sev = sev_full.loc[fit_start_dt:]
+        horizon_eff = max(7, min(horizon, len(acc.loc[intervention_date:]) ))
+
+        glm_pred, svr_pred, residuals = fit_and_extrapolate(acc, intervention_date, days=horizon_eff)
+
+        counter = None
+        if svr_pred is not None:
+            counter = svr_pred
+        elif glm_pred is not None:
+            counter = glm_pred
+        else:
+            try:
+                arima_df = arima_forecast_with_grid_search(acc.loc[:intervention_date],
+                                                           start_date=intervention_date + pd.Timedelta(days=1),
+                                                           horizon=horizon_eff)
+                counter = pd.Series(arima_df['forecast'].values, index=arima_df.index, name='cf_arima')
+                residuals = (acc.reindex(counter.index) - counter)
+            except Exception:
+                counter = None
+        if counter is None:
+            continue
+
+        count_eff, sev_eff, (F1, F2), state = evaluate_strategy_effectiveness(
+            actual_series=acc,
+            counterfactual_series=counter,
+            severity_series=sev,
+            strategy_date=intervention_date,
+            window=horizon_eff
+        )
+        results[strategy] = {
+            'effect_strength': float(residuals.dropna().mean()) if residuals is not None else 0.0,
+            'adaptability': float(F1 + F2),
+            'count_effective': bool(count_eff),
+            'severity_effective': bool(sev_eff),
+            'safety_state': state,
+            'F1': float(F1),
+            'F2': float(F2),
+            'intervention_date': str(intervention_date.date())
+        }
+
+    # Secondary attempt with 14-day window if no results
+    if not results:
+        for strategy in strategy_types:
+            has_strategy = combined_data['strategy_type'].apply(lambda x: strategy in x)
+            if not has_strategy.any():
+                continue
+            intervention_date = has_strategy[has_strategy].index[0]
+            glm_pred, svr_pred, residuals = fit_and_extrapolate(acc_full, intervention_date, days=14)
+            counter = None
+            if svr_pred is not None:
+                counter = svr_pred
+            elif glm_pred is not None:
+                counter = glm_pred
+            else:
+                try:
+                    arima_df = arima_forecast_with_grid_search(acc_full.loc[:intervention_date],
+                                                               start_date=intervention_date + pd.Timedelta(days=1),
+                                                               horizon=14)
+                    counter = pd.Series(arima_df['forecast'].values, index=arima_df.index, name='cf_arima')
+                    residuals = (acc_full.reindex(counter.index) - counter)
+                except Exception:
+                    counter = None
+            if counter is None:
+                continue
+            count_eff, sev_eff, (F1, F2), state = evaluate_strategy_effectiveness(
+                actual_series=acc_full,
+                counterfactual_series=counter,
+                severity_series=sev_full,
+                strategy_date=intervention_date,
+                window=14
+            )
+            results[strategy] = {
+                'effect_strength': float(residuals.dropna().mean()) if residuals is not None else 0.0,
+                'adaptability': float(F1 + F2),
+                'count_effective': bool(count_eff),
+                'severity_effective': bool(sev_eff),
+                'safety_state': state,
+                'F1': float(F1),
+                'F2': float(F2),
+                'intervention_date': str(intervention_date.date())
+            }
+
+    best_strategy = max(results, key=lambda x: results[x]['adaptability']) if results else None
+    recommendation = f"建议在{region}区域长期实施策略类型 {best_strategy}" if best_strategy else "无足够数据推荐策略"
+    return results, recommendation
+

strategy_evaluation_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +0,0 @@
-,effect_strength,adaptability,count_effective,severity_effective,safety_state,F1,F2,intervention_date
-交通信息预警,-8.965321179202334,-0.7855379968058066,True,False,三级,0.2463091369521552,-1.0318471337579618,2022-01-13
-交通整治活动,-2.651006128785241,-1.667254385637472,True,False,三级,0.08411173458110731,-1.7513661202185793,2022-01-11
-交通管制措施,-10.70286313762653,0.19010392243197832,True,False,三级,0.2989387495766646,-0.1088348271446863,2022-01-20
-政策制度实施,-2.6771799687750018,-5.1316650216481605,True,False,三级,0.07856225107911223,-5.2102272727272725,2022-01-06

ui_sections/__init__.py

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+from .overview import render_overview
+from .forecast import render_forecast
+from .model_eval import render_model_eval
+from .strategy_eval import render_strategy_eval
+from .hotspot import render_hotspot
+
+__all__ = [
+    'render_overview',
+    'render_forecast',
+    'render_model_eval',
+    'render_strategy_eval',
+    'render_hotspot',
+]

ui_sections/forecast.py

@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import pandas as pd
+import plotly.graph_objects as go
+import streamlit as st
+
+from services.forecast import (
+    arima_forecast_with_grid_search,
+    knn_forecast_counterfactual,
+    fit_and_extrapolate,
+)
+
+
+def render_forecast(base: pd.DataFrame):
+    st.subheader("多模型预测比较")
+
+    if base is None or base.empty:
+        st.info("暂无可用于预测的事故数据，请先在侧边栏上传数据并应用筛选。")
+        st.session_state.setdefault(
+            "forecast_state",
+            {"results": None, "last_message": "暂无可用于预测的事故数据。"},
+        )
+        return
+
+    forecast_state = st.session_state.setdefault(
+        "forecast_state",
+        {
+            "selected_date": None,
+            "horizon": 30,
+            "results": None,
+            "last_message": None,
+            "data_signature": None,
+        },
+    )
+
+    earliest_date = base.index.min().date()
+    latest_date = base.index.max().date()
+    fallback_date = max(
+        (base.index.max() - pd.Timedelta(days=30)).date(),
+        earliest_date,
+    )
+    current_signature = (
+        earliest_date.isoformat(),
+        latest_date.isoformat(),
+        int(len(base)),
+        float(base["accident_count"].sum()),
+    )
+
+    # Reset cached results if the underlying dataset has changed
+    if forecast_state.get("data_signature") != current_signature:
+        forecast_state.update(
+            {
+                "data_signature": current_signature,
+                "results": None,
+                "last_message": None,
+                "selected_date": fallback_date,
+            }
+        )
+
+    default_date = forecast_state.get("selected_date") or fallback_date
+    if default_date < earliest_date:
+        default_date = earliest_date
+    if default_date > latest_date:
+        default_date = latest_date
+
+    with st.form(key="predict_form"):
+        selected_date = st.date_input(
+            "选择干预日期 / 预测起点",
+            value=default_date,
+            min_value=earliest_date,
+            max_value=latest_date,
+        )
+        horizon = st.number_input(
+            "预测天数",
+            min_value=7,
+            max_value=90,
+            value=int(forecast_state.get("horizon", 30)),
+            step=1,
+        )
+        submit_predict = st.form_submit_button("应用预测参数")
+
+    forecast_state["selected_date"] = selected_date
+    forecast_state["horizon"] = int(horizon)
+
+    if submit_predict:
+        history = base.loc[:pd.to_datetime(selected_date)]
+        if len(history) < 10:
+            forecast_state.update(
+                {
+                    "results": None,
+                    "last_message": "干预前数据不足（至少需要 10 个观测点）。",
+                }
+            )
+        else:
+            with st.spinner("正在生成预测结果…"):
+                warnings: list[str] = []
+                try:
+                    train_series = history["accident_count"]
+                    arima_df = arima_forecast_with_grid_search(
+                        train_series,
+                        start_date=pd.to_datetime(selected_date) + pd.Timedelta(days=1),
+                        horizon=int(horizon),
+                    )
+                except Exception as exc:
+                    arima_df = None
+                    warnings.append(f"ARIMA 运行失败：{exc}")
+
+                knn_pred, _ = knn_forecast_counterfactual(
+                    base["accident_count"],
+                    pd.to_datetime(selected_date),
+                    horizon=int(horizon),
+                )
+                if knn_pred is None:
+                    warnings.append("KNN 预测未生成结果（历史数据不足或维度不满足要求）。")
+
+                glm_pred, svr_pred, _ = fit_and_extrapolate(
+                    base["accident_count"],
+                    pd.to_datetime(selected_date),
+                    days=int(horizon),
+                )
+                if glm_pred is None and svr_pred is None:
+                    warnings.append("GLM/SVR 预测未生成结果，建议缩短预测窗口或检查源数据。")
+
+                forecast_state.update(
+                    {
+                        "results": {
+                            "selected_date": selected_date,
+                            "horizon": int(horizon),
+                            "arima_df": arima_df,
+                            "knn_pred": knn_pred,
+                            "glm_pred": glm_pred,
+                            "svr_pred": svr_pred,
+                            "warnings": warnings,
+                        },
+                        "last_message": None,
+                    }
+                )
+
+    results = forecast_state.get("results")
+    if not results:
+        if forecast_state.get("last_message"):
+            st.warning(forecast_state["last_message"])
+        else:
+            st.info("请设置预测参数并点击“应用预测参数”按钮。")
+        return
+
+    first_date = pd.to_datetime(results["selected_date"])
+    horizon_days = int(results["horizon"])
+    arima_df = results["arima_df"]
+    knn_pred = results["knn_pred"]
+    glm_pred = results["glm_pred"]
+    svr_pred = results["svr_pred"]
+
+    fig_pred = go.Figure()
+    fig_pred.add_trace(
+        go.Scatter(x=base.index, y=base["accident_count"], name="实际", mode="lines")
+    )
+    if arima_df is not None:
+        fig_pred.add_trace(
+            go.Scatter(x=arima_df.index, y=arima_df["forecast"], name="ARIMA", mode="lines")
+        )
+    if knn_pred is not None:
+        fig_pred.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=knn_pred.index, y=knn_pred, name="KNN", mode="lines"))
+    if glm_pred is not None:
+        fig_pred.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=glm_pred.index, y=glm_pred, name="GLM", mode="lines"))
+    if svr_pred is not None:
+        fig_pred.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=svr_pred.index, y=svr_pred, name="SVR", mode="lines"))
+
+    fig_pred.update_layout(
+        title=f"多模型预测比较（起点：{first_date.date()}，预测 {horizon_days} 天）",
+        xaxis_title="日期",
+        yaxis_title="事故数",
+    )
+    st.plotly_chart(fig_pred, use_container_width=True)
+
+    if arima_df is not None:
+        st.download_button(
+            "下载 ARIMA 预测 CSV",
+            data=arima_df.to_csv().encode("utf-8-sig"),
+            file_name="arima_forecast.csv",
+            mime="text/csv",
+        )
+
+    for warning_text in results.get("warnings", []):
+        st.warning(warning_text)

ui_sections/hotspot.py

@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from datetime import datetime
+
+import plotly.express as px
+import streamlit as st
+
+from services.hotspot import (
+    analyze_hotspot_frequency,
+    calculate_hotspot_risk_score,
+    generate_hotspot_strategies,
+    prepare_hotspot_dataset,
+    serialise_datetime_columns,
+)
+
+
+@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
+def _prepare_hotspot_data(df):
+    return prepare_hotspot_dataset(df)
+
+
+def render_hotspot(accident_records, accident_source_name: str | None) -> None:
+    st.header("📍 事故多发路口分析")
+    st.markdown("独立分析事故数据，识别高风险路口并生成针对性策略。")
+
+    if accident_records is None:
+        st.info("请在左侧上传事故数据并点击“应用数据与筛选”后再执行热点分析。")
+        st.markdown(
+            """
+            ### 📝 支持的数据格式要求：
+            - **文件格式**：Excel (.xlsx)
+            - **必要字段**：
+              - `事故时间`
+              - `事故类型`
+              - `事故具体地点`
+              - `所在街道`
+              - `道路类型`
+              - `路口路段类型`
+            """
+        )
+        return
+
+    with st.spinner("正在准备事故热点数据…"):
+        hotspot_data = _prepare_hotspot_data(accident_records)
+
+    st.success(f"✅ 成功加载数据：{len(hotspot_data)} 条事故记录")
+
+    metric_cols = st.columns(3)
+    with metric_cols[0]:
+        st.metric(
+            "数据时间范围",
+            f"{hotspot_data['事故时间'].min().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')} 至 {hotspot_data['事故时间'].max().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')}",
+        )
+    with metric_cols[1]:
+        st.metric(
+            "事故类型分布",
+            f"财损: {len(hotspot_data[hotspot_data['事故类型'] == '财损'])}起",
+        )
+    with metric_cols[2]:
+        st.metric("涉及区域", f"{hotspot_data['所在街道'].nunique()}个街道")
+
+    st.subheader("🔧 分析参数设置")
+    settings_cols = st.columns(3)
+    with settings_cols[0]:
+        time_window = st.selectbox(
+            "统计时间窗口",
+            options=["7D", "15D", "30D"],
+            index=0,
+            key="hotspot_window",
+        )
+    with settings_cols[1]:
+        min_accidents = st.number_input(
+            "最小事故数", min_value=1, max_value=50, value=3, key="hotspot_min_accidents"
+        )
+    with settings_cols[2]:
+        top_n = st.slider("显示热点数量", min_value=3, max_value=20, value=8, key="hotspot_top_n")
+
+    if not st.button("🚀 开始热点分析", type="primary"):
+        return
+
+    with st.spinner("正在分析事故热点分布…"):
+        hotspots = analyze_hotspot_frequency(hotspot_data, time_window=time_window)
+        hotspots = hotspots[hotspots["accident_count"] >= min_accidents]
+
+        if hotspots.empty:
+            st.warning("⚠️ 未找到符合条件的事故热点数据，请调整筛选参数。")
+            return
+
+        hotspots_with_risk = calculate_hotspot_risk_score(hotspots.head(top_n * 3))
+        top_hotspots = hotspots_with_risk.head(top_n)
+
+    st.subheader("📊 事故多发路口排名（前{0}个）".format(top_n))
+    display_columns = {
+        "accident_count": "累计事故数",
+        "recent_count": "近期事故数",
+        "trend_ratio": "趋势比例",
+        "main_accident_type": "主要类型",
+        "main_intersection_type": "路口类型",
+        "risk_score": "风险评分",
+        "risk_level": "风险等级",
+    }
+    display_df = top_hotspots[list(display_columns.keys())].rename(columns=display_columns)
+    styled_df = display_df.style.format({"趋势比例": "{:.2f}", "风险评分": "{:.1f}"}).background_gradient(
+        subset=["风险评分"], cmap="Reds"
+    )
+    st.dataframe(styled_df, use_container_width=True)
+
+    st.subheader("🎯 针对性策略建议")
+    strategies = generate_hotspot_strategies(top_hotspots, time_period="本周")
+    for index, strategy_info in enumerate(strategies, start=1):
+        message = f"**{index}. {strategy_info['strategy']}**"
+        risk_level = strategy_info["risk_level"]
+        if risk_level == "高风险":
+            st.error(f"🚨 {message}")
+        elif risk_level == "中风险":
+            st.warning(f"⚠️ {message}")
+        else:
+            st.info(f"✅ {message}")
+
+    st.subheader("📈 数据分析可视化")
+    chart_cols = st.columns(2)
+    with chart_cols[0]:
+        fig_hotspots = px.bar(
+            top_hotspots.head(10),
+            x=top_hotspots.head(10).index,
+            y=["accident_count", "recent_count"],
+            title="事故频次TOP10分布",
+            labels={"value": "事故数量", "variable": "类型", "index": "路口名称"},
+            barmode="group",
+        )
+        fig_hotspots.update_layout(xaxis_tickangle=-45)
+        st.plotly_chart(fig_hotspots, use_container_width=True)
+
+    with chart_cols[1]:
+        risk_distribution = top_hotspots["risk_level"].value_counts()
+        fig_risk = px.pie(
+            values=risk_distribution.values,
+            names=risk_distribution.index,
+            title="风险等级分布",
+            color_discrete_map={"高风险": "red", "中风险": "orange", "低风险": "green"},
+        )
+        st.plotly_chart(fig_risk, use_container_width=True)
+
+    st.subheader("💾 数据导出")
+    download_cols = st.columns(2)
+    with download_cols[0]:
+        hotspot_csv = top_hotspots.to_csv().encode("utf-8-sig")
+        st.download_button(
+            "📥 下载热点数据CSV",
+            data=hotspot_csv,
+            file_name=f"accident_hotspots_{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d')}.csv",
+            mime="text/csv",
+        )
+
+    with download_cols[1]:
+        serializable = serialise_datetime_columns(top_hotspots.reset_index())
+        report_payload = {
+            "analysis_time": datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S"),
+            "time_window": time_window,
+            "data_source": accident_source_name or "事故数据",
+            "total_records": int(len(hotspot_data)),
+            "analysis_parameters": {"min_accidents": int(min_accidents), "top_n": int(top_n)},
+            "top_hotspots": serializable.to_dict("records"),
+            "recommended_strategies": strategies,
+            "summary": {
+                "high_risk_count": int((top_hotspots["risk_level"] == "高风险").sum()),
+                "medium_risk_count": int((top_hotspots["risk_level"] == "中风险").sum()),
+                "total_analyzed_locations": int(len(hotspots)),
+                "most_dangerous_location": top_hotspots.index[0]
+                if len(top_hotspots)
+                else "无",
+            },
+        }
+        st.download_button(
+            "📄 下载完整分析报告",
+            data=json.dumps(report_payload, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2),
+            file_name=f"hotspot_analysis_report_{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d_%H%M')}.json",
+            mime="application/json",
+        )
+
+    with st.expander("📋 查看原始数据预览"):
+        preview_cols = ["事故时间", "所在街道", "事故类型", "事故具体地点", "道路类型"]
+        preview_df = hotspot_data[preview_cols].copy()
+        st.dataframe(preview_df.head(10), use_container_width=True)

ui_sections/model_eval.py

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import pandas as pd
+import streamlit as st
+
+from services.metrics import evaluate_models
+
+
+def render_model_eval(base: pd.DataFrame):
+    st.subheader("模型预测效果对比")
+    with st.form(key="model_eval_form"):
+        horizon_sel = st.slider("评估窗口（天）", 7, 60, 30, step=1)
+        submit_eval = st.form_submit_button("应用评估参数")
+
+    if not submit_eval:
+        st.info("请设置评估窗口并点击“应用评估参数”按钮。")
+        return
+
+    try:
+        df_metrics = evaluate_models(base['accident_count'], horizon=int(horizon_sel))
+        st.dataframe(df_metrics, use_container_width=True)
+        best_model = df_metrics['RMSE'].idxmin()
+        st.success(f"过去 {int(horizon_sel)} 天中，RMSE 最低的模型是：**{best_model}**")
+        st.download_button(
+            "下载评估结果 CSV",
+            data=df_metrics.to_csv().encode('utf-8-sig'),
+            file_name="model_evaluation.csv",
+            mime="text/csv",
+        )
+    except ValueError as err:
+        st.warning(str(err))
+

ui_sections/overview.py

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+import pandas as pd
+import plotly.graph_objects as go
+import streamlit as st
+
+def render_overview(base: pd.DataFrame, region_sel: str, start_dt: pd.Timestamp, end_dt: pd.Timestamp,
+                    strat_filter: list[str]):
+    fig_line = go.Figure()
+    fig_line.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=base.index, y=base['accident_count'], name='事故数', mode='lines'))
+    fig_line.update_layout(title="事故数（过滤后）", xaxis_title="Date", yaxis_title="Count")
+    st.plotly_chart(fig_line, use_container_width=True)
+
+    html = fig_line.to_html(full_html=True, include_plotlyjs='cdn')
+    st.download_button("下载图表 HTML", data=html.encode('utf-8'),
+                       file_name="overview_series.html", mime="text/html")
+
+    st.dataframe(base, use_container_width=True)
+    csv_bytes = base.to_csv(index=True).encode('utf-8-sig')
+    st.download_button("下载当前视图 CSV", data=csv_bytes, file_name="filtered_view.csv", mime="text/csv")
+
+    meta = {
+        "region": region_sel,
+        "date_range": [str(start_dt.date()), str(end_dt.date())],
+        "strategy_filter": strat_filter,
+        "rows": int(len(base)),
+        "min_date": str(base.index.min().date()) if len(base) else None,
+        "max_date": str(base.index.max().date()) if len(base) else None,
+    }
+    st.download_button("下载运行参数 JSON", data=json.dumps(meta, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2).encode('utf-8'),
+                       file_name="run_metadata.json", mime="application/json")
+

ui_sections/strategy_eval.py

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import os
+import pandas as pd
+import streamlit as st
+
+from services.strategy import generate_output_and_recommendations
+
+
+def render_strategy_eval(base: pd.DataFrame, all_strategy_types: list[str], region_sel: str):
+    st.info(f"📌 检测到的策略类型：{', '.join(all_strategy_types) or '（数据中没有策略）'}")
+    if not all_strategy_types:
+        st.warning("数据中没有检测到策略。")
+        return
+
+    with st.form(key="strategy_eval_form"):
+        horizon_eval = st.slider("评估窗口（天）", 7, 60, 14, step=1)
+        submit_strat_eval = st.form_submit_button("应用评估参数")
+
+    if not submit_strat_eval:
+        st.info("请设置评估窗口并点击“应用评估参数”按钮。")
+        return
+
+    results, recommendation = generate_output_and_recommendations(
+        base,
+        all_strategy_types,
+        region=region_sel if region_sel != '全市' else '全市',
+        horizon=horizon_eval,
+    )
+
+    if not results:
+        st.warning("⚠️ 未能完成策略评估。请尝试缩短评估窗口或扩大日期范围。")
+        return
+
+    st.subheader("各策略指标")
+    df_res = pd.DataFrame(results).T
+    st.dataframe(df_res, use_container_width=True)
+    st.success(f"⭐ 推荐：{recommendation}")
+
+    st.download_button(
+        "下载策略评估 CSV",
+        data=df_res.to_csv().encode('utf-8-sig'),
+        file_name="strategy_evaluation_results.csv",
+        mime="text/csv",
+    )
+
+    if os.path.exists('recommendation.txt'):
+        with open('recommendation.txt','r',encoding='utf-8') as f:
+            st.download_button("下载推荐文本", data=f.read().encode('utf-8'), file_name="recommendation.txt")
+